Snowevent20191119

An upper level disturbance will bring a wintry mix to the region through mid-Tuesday morning, with a light accumulation of snow and ice expected. Chilly and mainly dry weather is expected on Wednesday and Thursday before another storm system brings some more rain and snow to the region to end the week.
-National Weather Service Albany NY
930 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

Winter Weather Advisories are in in effect through 10 am for all but the Hudson Valley from the Poughkeepsie area up into the Capital District and for Ulster and southern Litchfield counties.

As of 410 am, water vapor imagery shows a sharp, negatively tilted shortwave trough advancing northward near NYC. Cooling cloud tops in IR imagery are indicative of strengthening lift as this wave approaches our forecast area. A band of moderate precipitation is setting up along the I-90 corridor with hourly precip rates of 0.1 to 0.25 inches per hour on NYS Mesonet obs. Another steady area of precip is located over the Mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. Bright banding signature along the I-90 corridor indicates temperature profiles are becoming isothermal near the freezing line as models have suggested. As a result, we are starting to see snow mix in with the rain. We are likely seeing a little freezing rain across the southern Adirondacks as well.

Going forward, main forecast challenge will continue to be p-type and associated impacts. Low-level cooling is mainly being accomplished through cooling due to strong ascent as there is just not a lot of cold air to work with. Model soundings suggest the transition to wet snow will continue through the morning hours. Accumulation potential will also be modified by the surface temperatures. Again, we are saturated with temps/dewpoints mainly 31-35F, without much potential to advect in colder air. So, despite models indicating potential for moderate to heavy precipitation rates with banded structures gradually moving north through the area through 15Z, marginal temperatures both at the surface and aloft will limit accumulation potential. Accumulation forecast is generally an inch or less, but could see locally up to two inches (preferentially on grassy surfaces) where strongest banding occurs. May end up issuing some Special Weather Statements later on as any potential changeover to snow with heavy precip rates would occur around the morning commute. The wet roads will likely mean that snowfall will struggle to accumulate on pavement outside of the potential heavy band.

-National Weather Service Albany NY
424 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

See file attachments.

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