Nws Lubbock Tx December 24 2013 Forecast Discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/news/nws-lubbock-forecast-discussion-20131225

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FXUS64 KLUB 242106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2013

.DISCUSSION…
TIS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND I AM AT THE HELM
TO BRING YOU WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE METEOROLOGICAL REALM.
IT TOOK QUITE A WHILE BUT THE SKIES FINALLY DID CLEAR…
THE ROLLING PLAINS CLEARED OUT AND MANY DID CHEER.

SNOW WAS STILL VISIBLE FROM OUR WEATHER SATELLITES ABOVE…
THE PANHANDLES STILL COVERED WHILE WE ARE BARREN OF.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT HINT TO OUR NORTH OF A VERY WEAK TROUGH.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AS A TANGIBLE SIGN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 60 FOR OUR AREAS HIGHS
BUT SHORT-LIVED IT WILL BE AS A WORD TO THE WISE.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…
BREEZY AND DRY WITH NO CHANCE OF THOSE PESKY SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN A PART OF THE FORECAST AT HAND…
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IF THIS WILL COVER THE LAND.

SATURATION IN THE MODELS NEAR CHILDRESS LOOKS BEST
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS GOOD AS YOU HEAD FURTHER WEST.
MENTION OF FREEZING FOG SEEMS BEST WAY TO GO
FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE SNOW.

COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND WARMER WEATHER AT BAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS…
A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT UNSEASONABLE FOR OUR STATIONS.

MY CO-WORKER HAS LOOKED AT THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND THERE LITTLE IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST IN SIGHT.
STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST
NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO AFFECT US TO SAY IN THE LEAST.

WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ON VARIOUS DAYS
BUT TIMINGS ARE DIFFERENT WITH MINOR DELAYS.
ON FRIDAY MORNING…
ON SATURDAY NIGHT…
THEN ON WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
NO NEED FOR WARNING…
WE SHOULD BE RIGHT…
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BLEAK.

SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE ONE TIME THAT WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW
BUT THE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ECMWF HAS SNOW FLURRIES AT MOST…
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS COME CLOSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR…
UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S IS NOTHING TO FEAR.
THE INHERITED FORECAST AND GRIDS ARE IN GREAT CONDITION…
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND WE HOPE IT COMES TO FRUITION.

ANOTHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE IS SENT…
WE HOPE IT WAS CLEAR AND YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT IT MEANT.
TRADITIONS ARE IMPORTANT AND I DON/T WANT TO ANNOY
BUT I LOVE WHAT I DO AND THIS BRINGS ME GREAT JOY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS HERE EVERY HOUR OF EVERY DAY
IN CASE THE WEATHER TURNS FOUL…NASTY…IS BORING OR GRAY.
AS THE NEXT SHIFT COMES IN AND OUR SHIFT END IS IN SIGHT…
HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL…AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT.

JORDAN/CHARBONEAU

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS…
FRIONA 21 46 21 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 23 46 23 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 25 47 23 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 25 47 24 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 26 48 23 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 27 49 26 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 26 49 24 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 26 49 25 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 29 48 27 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 31 49 27 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
NONE.
&&

$$

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