2018 2019 Season Forecast

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Last year, Kingstosnows issued its first seasonal snow forecast Link. The forecast called for 48 inches of snow throughout the season with a likely range of 35 to 61 inches. The forecast was made on December 12th, and by winter's end a total of 51.3 inches had fallen. Issued over four months before the last snow of the season, last year's season forecast was just 3.3 inches below the actual season total.

Last year's forecast was based what I'm calling the "Second Snow Rule". This is an observation in Kingstonsnows data since 2004 that there is a fairly strong correlation between the date of the second snowfall of the season and the total snowfall for the season. As was pointed out after our November snowstorm, there is really no appreciable correlation between the date of the first snowfall and the season total Link. If one were to use the date of the first snowfall to estimate the season total, the forecast would off by an average of 42 inches - that is a very significant error. However, if one were to use the date of either the second or third snowfall to estimate the season total, the forecast would be off by a more acceptable average of 12 inches. So far this winter, we have had three measurable snowfalls: November 16th, December 24th, and December 30th. Using the correlations of the 1st snowfalls, a season total of 73.3 inches +/- 42 inches would be expected. However, using both the more accurate 2nd and 3rd snowfall correlations, a season total of roughly 34 inches +/- 12.6 inches would be expected. Based on these numbers, Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall.

We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!
-Ethan

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