Tuesday February 18

Nice stretch of weather
School Forecast through:
Friday February 21, 2020
Last Updated: 11:00PM Tuesday February 18, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal

11PM Tuesday

Just wanted to post a quick follow up verification of yesterday's school probabilities & outlook map. Most schools out toward the Catskills ended up suspending after school activities, which was in line with greater expected impacts for that part of the county.


Enjoy the rest of the week - it looks to be beautiful through the weekend. No storms until next week.


9PM Monday

A storm system will move through the region tomorrow. Like just about all of our storms this winter, this one will likely produce a period of snow that transitions to plain rain. A prolonged period of calm weather will follow.


Clear skies this evening will become cloudy overnight as temperatures dip into the upper 20s. The storm will approach the region around mid-morning tomorrow. Precipitation will become increasingly likely as the morning progresses. At this time, light snow is most likely to develop around 9AM in Kingston. A couple of hours of light snow will be possible before snow transitions to light rain. At this time, this transition is most likely to happen by 11AM or 12PM. Rain will increase in intensity during the afternoon as temperatures reach the upper 30s. Rain is likely to end in the 5PM to 7PM timeframe. Around half an inch of snow is likely before the changeover to rain.


As far as potential impacts…
morning temperatures will be cold enough to support some road impacts from any snow that falls. After being in the upper 20s overnight, temperatures will likely begin to rise above freezing around 10AM and become too warm to support snow by late morning. With the anticipated changeover to rain, any road impacts will improve as we head into the afternoon. Kingston has two early dismissal options: morning and afternoon. An afternoon early dismissal is not likely because they occur at 12:30PM/1:30PM. By that time, snow will have changed to rain and any road impacts will be improving, so they are likely to be safer later at the regular dismissal times than during the early afternoon. If an early dismissal were to occur, a morning early dismissal appears more likely at 10AM/11AM. However, with the changeover to rain expected to occur by about 11AM/12PM and some bus routes taking close to an hour, any road impacts may be nearing their most hazardous levels as students are still being transported. For these reasons, coupled with the expected light snow amounts and gradually improving afternoon conditions, the most likely outcome is a regular dismissal in Kingston. Of 13 snow-related early dismissals over the past decade, four are somewhat comparable to the current forecast, however in all four snow continued later into the mid-afternoon.


All that said, if expected snow totals increase overnight or if the changeover to rain is delayed, then early dismissal probabilities would increase. School impacts will be more likely out toward the Catskills where snow is expected to last longer and accumulate more. After tomorrow, dry weather is expected until next Tuesday.


9AM Monday

Hi everyone - hope you’re enjoying the holiday off. Just a very quick update to note that we may see some snow tomorrow. There is the potential for some light accumulation, mainly between about 8AM and 1PM. Because of this there is the potential for early dismissals across Ulster County tomorrow, including Kingston. A full update and more thorough assessment of the cancellation probabilities will be posted this evening. The update will be posted between 5PM when I get home and 10PM



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