Monday February 17

Light snow, then rain tomorrow
School Forecast for:
Tuesday February 18, 2020
Last Updated: 9:15PM Monday February 17, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)
30%
(Low)

9PM Monday

A storm system will move through the region tomorrow. Like just about all of our storms this winter, this one will likely produce a period of snow that transitions to plain rain. A prolonged period of calm weather will follow.

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Clear skies this evening will become cloudy overnight as temperatures dip into the upper 20s. The storm will approach the region around mid-morning tomorrow. Precipitation will become increasingly likely as the morning progresses. At this time, light snow is most likely to develop around 9AM in Kingston. A couple of hours of light snow will be possible before snow transitions to light rain. At this time, this transition is most likely to happen by 11AM or 12PM. Rain will increase in intensity during the afternoon as temperatures reach the upper 30s. Rain is likely to end in the 5PM to 7PM timeframe. Around half an inch of snow is likely before the changeover to rain.

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As far as potential impacts…
morning temperatures will be cold enough to support some road impacts from any snow that falls. After being in the upper 20s overnight, temperatures will likely begin to rise above freezing around 10AM and become too warm to support snow by late morning. With the anticipated changeover to rain, any road impacts will improve as we head into the afternoon. Kingston has two early dismissal options: morning and afternoon. An afternoon early dismissal is not likely because they occur at 12:30PM/1:30PM. By that time, snow will have changed to rain and any road impacts will be improving, so they are likely to be safer later at the regular dismissal times than during the early afternoon. If an early dismissal were to occur, a morning early dismissal appears more likely at 10AM/11AM. However, with the changeover to rain expected to occur by about 11AM/12PM and some bus routes taking close to an hour, any road impacts may be nearing their most hazardous levels as students are still being transported. For these reasons, coupled with the expected light snow amounts and gradually improving afternoon conditions, the most likely outcome is a regular dismissal in Kingston. Of 13 snow-related early dismissals over the past decade, four are somewhat comparable to the current forecast, however in all four snow continued later into the mid-afternoon.

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All that said, if expected snow totals increase overnight or if the changeover to rain is delayed, then early dismissal probabilities would increase. School impacts will be more likely out toward the Catskills where snow is expected to last longer and accumulate more. After tomorrow, dry weather is expected until next Tuesday.

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9AM Monday

Hi everyone - hope you’re enjoying the holiday off. Just a very quick update to note that we may see some snow tomorrow. There is the potential for some light accumulation, mainly between about 8AM and 1PM. Because of this there is the potential for early dismissals across Ulster County tomorrow, including Kingston. A full update and more thorough assessment of the cancellation probabilities will be posted this evening. The update will be posted between 5PM when I get home and 10PM

-Ethan

Extended Outlook Probabilities
Updated: 6:30AM Monday February 10, 2020
Valid through Sunday February 16, 2020

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Delay Very Low Very Low
Medium Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Closing
Very Low Very Low
Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low Very Low
None Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Very Low
High Very Low
Very Low
Low
Rain Medium Very Low
Medium
Very Low
Very Low
Low
< 32°F
Medium High
High
Very High Very High High
Windy
Very Low Very Low Low
Medium Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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