Tuesday February 11

Snow to Rain early Thursday
School Forecast for:
Thursday February 13, 2020
Last Updated: 6:30PM Tuesday February 11, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
40%
(Medium) 20%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)

6PM Tuesday

Storm still expected to move through Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The storm is likely to begin around 10PM Wednesday. A brief period of light rain and/or very wet snow will be possible right at the beginning, however by 12AM a change over to all snow is expected as temperatures fall to right around freezing. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a slight trend toward a shorter period of snow. Last night, it was mentioned that snow was likely to change to rain between about 3AM and 5AM. Today, the best evidence suggests that this changeover may occur closer to 3AM as warmer air moves in slightly quicker. Once this change to rain occurs, rain will persist through about mid morning.

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As far as potential impacts go, slick roads remain possible Thursday morning. However, because of what is looking like a quicker changeover to rain, the window for snow accumulation is looking smaller than last night, and may be limited amounts to an inch or two. In addition to the lighter snow amounts, accumulations will likely have a difficult time sticking to roads. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will have approached 40 degrees, and are only likely to fall to about 32 degrees Wednesday night. This means that road temperatures will remain relatively warm. Some treated roads and main roads may only get "wet" Wednesday night. If snow does stick to side roads, it will amount to less than whatever accumulates on colder surfaces like grass and cars. Once the changeover to rain occurs, any snow accumulations will become slushy. Much of any snow that falls could be washed away before the storm ends mid-Thursday morning. Because of these factors, local school cancellations are currently unlikely with this storm. Delays will be possible, but there is still not enough confidence in this outcome for probabilities to exceed 50%. Will be closely monitoring the temperature trends over the next 24 hours, as they are what will ultimately determine how much snow we see, and the resulting impacts.

Next Update:
Wednesday evening

-------
12AM Tuesday

Based on National Weather Service storm reports, Kingston picked up an estimated 2.3 inches of snow Monday morning. Our attention now turns to the next storm, which will move through Wednesday night into early Thursday. This storm looks to be similar to yesterday's with accumulating snow expected before a transition to rain.

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Confidence in this storm materializing is very high. This storm has been consistently depicted by computer guidance to develop for eight days now. It has consistently been depicted to impact southeast NY for the past four days, and it has consistently been depicted giving us accumulating snow for three days now. The storm system is currently over Arizona and will organize as it drifts toward Texas. The storm will move out of Texas and northward across the eastern US on Wednesday, eventually arriving in NY Wednesday night. Some uncertainty exists in exactly how the temperatures unfold.

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Locally, brief chance of light rain this afternoon, then expecting calm weather on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday should start in the upper 20s, and rise to the upper 30s during the afternoon. The storm will start Wednesday night, likely between 8PM and 12AM. Currently, its looking like temperatures will fall to right around freezing Wednesday night. Most guidance actually keeps our temperatures in the 31 to 33 degree range, which is just barely cold enough to produce a very wet snow - we'll have to watch these temperatures as the storm approaches. As the storm progresses, warmer air will be funneled into the region. With temperatures already being marginal at best, this will eventually result in a changeover to rain. At this time, it's looking like about a six-hour period of mainly snow, with a transition to rain occurring between 3AM and 5AM. The storm is likely to end between 7AM and noon.

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As far as accumulations go, the trends have been for about 0.3 to 0.4 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation to fall through about 4AM. This means that if it were all rain, we'd have 0.3 to 0.4 inches of rain, and traditionally if it were all snow we'd generally have about 3 to 4 inches - which would melt to 0.3 to 0.4 inches of water. With temperatures expected to be so marginal, this 0.3 to 0.4 inches of water may convert to a slightly lower amount of snow: perhaps more like 2 to 4 inches. Lower amounts are certainly expected on paved surfaces which will remain relatively warm from Wednesday afternoon. This all being said, we'll have to closely watch the temperatures Wednesday into Thursday. The most likely way to have lower snow accumulations will be if temperatures rise slightly, introducing more rain. The most likely way that we can receive greater accumulations will be if temperatures are colder than currently anticipated Wednesday night, delaying the changeover to rain. Potential impact details will be discussed in future updates.

Next Update:
Tuesday night

-Ethan

Extended Outlook Probabilities
Updated: 6:30AM Monday February 10, 2020
Valid through Sunday February 16, 2020

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Delay Very Low Very Low
Medium Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Closing
Very Low Very Low
Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low Very Low
None Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Very Low
High Very Low
Very Low
Low
Rain Medium Very Low
Medium
Very Low
Very Low
Low
< 32°F
Medium High
High
Very High Very High High
Windy
Very Low Very Low Low
Medium Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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KingstonSnows forecasts are updated as needed during the winter months. For the latest forecasts between updates, please visit the National Weather Service at weather.gov

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