Tuesday February 11

Next storm: Wednesday night
School Forecast for:
Thursday February 13, 2020
Last Updated: 12:15AM Tuesday February 11, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
40%
(Medium) 30%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)

12AM Tuesday

Based on National Weather Service storm reports, Kingston picked up an estimated 2.3 inches of snow Monday morning. Our attention now turns to the next storm, which will move through Wednesday night into early Thursday. This storm looks to be similar to yesterday's with accumulating snow expected before a transition to rain.

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Confidence in this storm materializing is very high. This storm has been consistently depicted by computer guidance to develop for eight days now. It has consistently been depicted to impact southeast NY for the past four days, and it has consistently been depicted giving us accumulating snow for three days now. The storm system is currently over Arizona and will organize as it drifts toward Texas. The storm will move out of Texas and northward across the eastern US on Wednesday, eventually arriving in NY Wednesday night. Some uncertainty exists in exactly how the temperatures unfold.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

Locally, brief chance of light rain this afternoon, then expecting calm weather on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday should start in the upper 20s, and rise to the upper 30s during the afternoon. The storm will start Wednesday night, likely between 8PM and 12AM. Currently, its looking like temperatures will fall to right around freezing Wednesday night. Most guidance actually keeps our temperatures in the 31 to 33 degree range, which is just barely cold enough to produce a very wet snow - we'll have to watch these temperatures as the storm approaches. As the storm progresses, warmer air will be funneled into the region. With temperatures already being marginal at best, this will eventually result in a changeover to rain. At this time, it's looking like about a six-hour period of mainly snow, with a transition to rain occurring between 3AM and 5AM. The storm is likely to end between 7AM and noon.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

As far as accumulations go, the trends have been for about 0.3 to 0.4 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation to fall through about 4AM. This means that if it were all rain, we'd have 0.3 to 0.4 inches of rain, and traditionally if it were all snow we'd generally have about 3 to 4 inches - which would melt to 0.3 to 0.4 inches of water. With temperatures expected to be so marginal, this 0.3 to 0.4 inches of water may convert to a slightly lower amount of snow: perhaps more like 2 to 4 inches. Lower amounts are certainly expected on paved surfaces which will remain relatively warm from Wednesday afternoon. This all being said, we'll have to closely watch the temperatures Wednesday into Thursday. The most likely way to have lower snow accumulations will be if temperatures rise slightly, introducing more rain. The most likely way that we can receive greater accumulations will be if temperatures are colder than currently anticipated Wednesday night, delaying the changeover to rain. Potential impact details will be discussed in future updates.

Next Update:
Tuesday night

-Ethan

Extended Outlook Probabilities
Updated: 6:30AM Monday February 10, 2020
Valid through Sunday February 16, 2020

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Delay Very Low Very Low
Medium Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Closing
Very Low Very Low
Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low Very Low
None Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Very Low
High Very Low
Very Low
Low
Rain Medium Very Low
Medium
Very Low
Very Low
Low
< 32°F
Medium High
High
Very High Very High High
Windy
Very Low Very Low Low
Medium Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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KingstonSnows forecasts are updated as needed during the winter months. For the latest forecasts between updates, please visit the National Weather Service at weather.gov

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