Wednesday February 5

Slippery Thursday morning
School Forecast for:
Thursday February 6th
Last Updated: 9:10PM Wednesday February 5, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
60%
(Medium) 30%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)

9PM Wednesday

Slick road conditions remain expected for Thursday morning. Our storm is currently sprawled across the eastern states with the leading edge approaching Pennsylvania and New Jersey at this time. Still expecting the storm to overspread Ulster County by about 1AM. Mostly sleet (possibly snowflakes too) is expected through about 4AM/5AM. Light freezing rain will then be possible through about 7AM. The main change to the forecast is the end time. Yesterday it was looking like steady precipitation may linger through 9AM-11AM. However, it is now looking like we may line up with somewhat of a dry slot that could end the steady precipitation as early as 7AM-9AM. The end of steady precipitation will likely coincide with a change from any ice to patchy liquid drizzle or mist though mid-morning. A lull develops mid-day and another pulse of rain moves through around 5PM. Overall, likely looking perhaps half an inch of snow/sleet and possibly a very light glaze of ice.

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Impacts.
Overall, the potential impacts are currently looking slightly less severe than last night. This is do to slightly less precipitation now being forecast due to the aforementioned dry slot/possibly earlier end time.Temperatures remain on track. After topping out around 36-39, local temperatures have since fallen back to 28-31. This is on par with what was expected. Not really expecting temperatures to fluctuate much overnight. These temperatures should be cold enough to make most secondary roads slick, but treated main roads like Broadway may simply be wet for most of the storm. At the moment, air temperatures look to rise above freezing around 7AM-9AM. Due to the timing of this storm, school impacts are expected tomorrow. Of about eight storms from the past decade that are projected to be similar, four of them resulted in delays and four of them resulted in cancellations. Of the four cancellations, two were initially delays that were later upgraded and one may have been influenced by snow the day before. Based on a combination of these results and the likely 7AM to 9AM end time: a delay is favored for tomorrow, but is not set in stone.


8PM Tuesday

Wintery weather remains expected to impact Ulster County. Slick road conditions are expected early Thursday morning. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a discernible trend toward more of a sleet/ice mix Thursday morning, opposed to accumulating snowfall. Overall, periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and liquid drizzle are all likely Thursday morning. At this time, still expecting frozen precipitation to begin around 1AM/2AM Thursday. This timing has been pretty consistent. Some snow may be possible at the beginning, but a warmer air layer creeping into the region above the ground will erode colder air below. This will cause a quick change to sleet, likely within the first hour. As the layer of cold air continues to erode, sleet is likely to transition to ice pellets or freezing rain. The best estimate for this timing is currently around 4AM or 5AM. Freezing rain may change to liquid drizzle between 5AM and about 9AM. The storm seems likely to end as liquid drizzle between 9AM and 11AM. If everything were to fall as snow (which it will not), this would be a 2 to 5 inch snowfall, however, because most of this storm will be sleet/ice no more than an inch of measurable accumulation is likely at this time. A glaze of ice will be possible as well.

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The impacts.
Bottomline: local road conditions are expected to be slick early Thursday morning. That being said, with all of the expected precipitation transitions (snow to sleet, sleet to ice, ice to rain), this is actually a very complex storm. The impacts of this storm will hinge on the temperatures, which will have a significant affect if they vary even a few degrees. The forecasted precipitation types and transition times are based on ground temperatures initially beginning around 29/30 degrees when the storm starts, and rising to 32/33 degrees in the 5AM - 9AM timeframe. If temperatures are any warmer, road impacts will be more limited and a quicker change to liquid drizzle will occur. If temperatures are cooler, more icing will occur. Based on the current forecast, local roads conditions are expected to become slick early Thursday morning, so local schools are currently most likely to at least issue delays. Whether or not any potential delays get upgraded to cancellations is still uncertain at the moment due to how borderline the temperatures will be, especially in the 5AM to 9AM timeframe. At this point, it could still go either way, so will raise medium probabilities of both for now and see how things trend over the next 24 hours: 40% delay/cancellation, 20% regular classes.

Next Update:
By 10PM Wednesday

------——
3PM Monday

After a warm and sunny start to the week today, our weather will become more unsettled. Expecting overcast skies for the rest of the week. Thursday is the day to watch as accumulating snow will be possible in the morning.

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Essentially, this week we will be under the influence of a flow of moisture from the south. This is a set up that we've seen countless times this winter, and is often characterized as several days of cloudy skies with light rain and moderate temperatures. Expecting skies to begin clouding up on Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will both have a very slight risk for some periodic drizzle. The best chance for drizzle appears to be late Tuesday night. Wednesday night into Thursday a surge of moisture will move through the region. It currently appears that temperatures will dip into the upper 20s Wednesday night, which should allow for a period of sleet or snow early Thursday. Any frozen precipitation is likely to transition to rain showers by mid-day Thursday. Conditions are likely to dry out Thursday afternoon, before a second pulse of moisture moves in Thursday night. This second batch is likely to result in plain rain Thursday night through Friday morning.

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At this time, there is the potential for accumulating snow or sleet Thursday morning. Snow/sleet is likely to begin around 1AM and continue through late morning before transitioning to rain showers. Trends over the past four days have consistently supported light snow accumulations. The Kingston area is most likely to see about 2 or 3 inches of snow at this time. Moderate impacts to the Thursday morning commute are currently expected.

Next Update:
Tuesday night

-Ethan

Extended Outlook Probabilities
Updated: 3PM Monday February 3rd
Valid through Sunday February 9th

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Delay Very Low Very Low
Medium
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Closing
Very Low Very Low High
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low Very Low
High
Very Low
Very Low Low
Rain Low
Low
Medium
High
Very Low Very Low
< 32°F
Very Low
Low
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Windy
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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