Friday January 24

Cold rain tomorrow
School Forecast for:
Monday January 27th
Last Updated: 8:30PM Friday January 24, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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(Nope)
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(Nope)

8:30PM Friday

Quick update: tomorrow will be wet. Sleet will be possible from 10AM to about 12PM. Really not expecting more than a light coating of accumulation at this point. Sleet changes to rain early afternoon. Rain will be likely through about 9PM. The rain could fall heavily between about 4PM and 7PM, and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world if someone, somewhere in the Hudson Valley heard a faint rumble of thunder.

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We are now exactly halfway through our normal snow season. The average date of Kingston's last snow is March 23rd. After an extreme start to the season in December, total snowfall has leveled off to near average for this point in the season (18.5 inches). Once tomorrow's storm clears, the rest of the week will be dry with the next storm not expected until next Saturday. There will again be a chance for snow next weekend, and then maybe the weekend after. To remain near average through February 7th, we'll need to receive about 7 inches of snow over the next two weeks.

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8PM Thursday

Brief update on Saturday's storm. As mentioned yesterday, there remains a window for wet snow or sleet in the morning, but a changeover to cold rain is expected around mid-day.

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Over the past 24 hours, there has been a trend toward less snow. This is because the storm may not start until closer to 10AM. Any snow or sleet that does fall in the morning is still likely to change over to a very cold rain by about 1PM. Rain is likely to end by about 10PM. At this time, it is likely that if there are any snow accumulations, they are likely to be less than an inch. This will likely be our last storm for the month of January, with the next likely not arriving before next weekend.

Next Update:
Friday Evening

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8PM Wednesday

The rest of this week will continue to be dry and chilly with plenty of sunshine. We're still looking at our next storm arriving on Saturday, however, it is currently looking to be more wet than white.

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Regarding the upcoming storm, in Monday's update it was mentioned that it appeared cold air over the region may not be anchored well. It was mentioned that this could allow warmer air associated with the storm to erode the initial cold air, resulting in at least a period of rain. This is becoming more likely. During last weekend's storm, a zone of high pressure in front of the storm helped to reinforce the cold air that was initially present. Although the cold air eroded throughout the day, the cold air was persistent enough to remain below freezing until after the storm ended. Our upcoming storm is very similar in structure to last week's, however, the zone of high pressure is weaker and will be further away. As a result, it will not be able to reinforce the cold air. Temperatures will not be as cold before the storm and will rise faster after the storm arrives.

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Currently, looking for Saturday morning's temperatures to start in the upper 20s. Snow or sleet will be possible mainly after 7AM. By early afternoon, temperatures should rise into the lower to mid 30s, which is right on the cusp of very wet snow vs. very cold rain. For now, will favor a changeover to a cold rain by the early afternoon. Precipitation is likely to persist through about 10PM. There is the potential for a couple of inches of very wet snow, which would make roads slick. Obviously if cold air does remain locked in place better, than we could be looking at a longer period of frozen precipitation with more accumulation. The forecast will be refined on Thursday and Friday.

Next Update:
Thursday Evening

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10PM Monday

The week ahead looks to be very calm. Mostly clear skies should be expected Tuesday and Wednesday with some clouds mixing in Thursday and Friday. Overall, temperatures will be pretty close to normal. The only significant weather looks to be another potential storm this weekend.

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Right now there are strong signals for another storm to impact us this weekend. There is currently the potential for periods of snow and rain with this storm, but the details are far from certain at this time. There will be some cold air in place, which could support periods of snow. However, the cold air may not be anchored well over the region. This opens the door to warmer air eroding the colder air, which could result in at least a period of rain. For this storm, the most likely way for the cold air to stay anchored in place would be if the initial storm system transfers its energy to a secondary center along east coast as it approaches New York. There is some indication that this may occur, but it is far from certain.

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At this time, it is too early to make a reasonable estimate of potential snowfall. By Wednesday there should be enough data and confidence to issue an initial snow forecast.

Next Update:
On Wednesday

-Ethan

Extended Outlook Probabilities
Updated: 10PM Monday January 20th
Valid January 27th through Weekend of the 1st/2nd

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low Very Low Low
Low
Very Low
Closing
Very Low Very Low Very Low Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low Very Low Very Low Low
Low
Very Low
Rain Very Low
Very Low Very Low Low
Very Low
Very Low
< 32°F
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
High
Windy
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Low
Medium
Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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