Wednesday January 22

Wet snow, rain likely Saturday
School Forecast through:
Friday January 24th
Last Updated: 8:30PM Wednesday January 22, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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(Nope)

8PM Wednesday

The rest of this week will continue to be dry and chilly with plenty of sunshine. We're still looking at our next storm arriving on Saturday, however, it is currently looking to be more wet than white.

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Regarding the upcoming storm, in Monday's update it was mentioned that it appeared cold air over the region may not be anchored well. It was mentioned that this could allow warmer air associated with the storm to erode the initial cold air, resulting in at least a period of rain. This is becoming more likely. During last weekend's storm, a zone of high pressure in front of the storm helped to reinforce the cold air that was initially present. Although the cold air eroded throughout the day, the cold air was persistent enough to remain below freezing until after the storm ended. Our upcoming storm is very similar in structure to last week's, however, the zone of high pressure is weaker and will be further away. As a result, it will not be able to reinforce the cold air. Temperatures will not be as cold before the storm and will rise faster after the storm arrives.

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Currently, looking for Saturday morning's temperatures to start in the upper 20s. Snow or sleet will be possible mainly after 7AM. By early afternoon, temperatures should rise into the lower to mid 30s, which is right on the cusp of very wet snow vs. very cold rain. For now, will favor a changeover to a cold rain by the early afternoon. Precipitation is likely to persist through about 10PM. There is the potential for a couple of inches of very wet snow, which would make roads slick. Obviously if cold air does remain locked in place better, than we could be looking at a longer period of frozen precipitation with more accumulation. The forecast will be refined on Thursday and Friday.

Next Update:
Thursday Evening

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10PM Monday

The week ahead looks to be very calm. Mostly clear skies should be expected Tuesday and Wednesday with some clouds mixing in Thursday and Friday. Overall, temperatures will be pretty close to normal. The only significant weather looks to be another potential storm this weekend.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

Right now there are strong signals for another storm to impact us this weekend. There is currently the potential for periods of snow and rain with this storm, but the details are far from certain at this time. There will be some cold air in place, which could support periods of snow. However, the cold air may not be anchored well over the region. This opens the door to warmer air eroding the colder air, which could result in at least a period of rain. For this storm, the most likely way for the cold air to stay anchored in place would be if the initial storm system transfers its energy to a secondary center along east coast as it approaches New York. There is some indication that this may occur, but it is far from certain.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

At this time, it is too early to make a reasonable estimate of potential snowfall. By Wednesday there should be enough data and confidence to issue an initial snow forecast.

Next Update:
On Wednesday

-Ethan

Extended Outlook Probabilities
Updated: 10PM Monday January 20th
Valid January 27th through Weekend of the 1st/2nd

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low Very Low Low
Low
Very Low
Closing
Very Low Very Low Very Low Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low Very Low Very Low Low
Low
Very Low
Rain Very Low
Very Low Very Low Low
Very Low
Very Low
< 32°F
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
High
Windy
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Low
Medium
Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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