Wednesday January 15

Some snow this weekend
School Forecast through:
Friday January 17th
Last Updated: 7:00PM Wednesday January 15, 2020
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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7PM Wednesday

Overall, the big picture for the weekend remains the same. A storm system will pass through on Saturday bringing our first accumulating snowfall in over a month. Still expecting snow to begin falling early Saturday afternoon, between 12PM and 3PM. Temperatures will be in the teens Saturday morning, so snow will have no trouble sticking. Steady snow is expected through the evening with maybe 2 or so inches of snow on untouched roads by sunset. Most notable update today has been a more definitive trend toward the steadier snow ending slightly earlier. Steady snow may end as early as 10PM. After 10PM, intermittent snow snow showers, sleet, or drizzle would be possible through about 4AM as temperatures rise closer to freezing. Still most likely looking at moderate accumulations. Most data today pointed toward about 4 inches. No changes to this morning's snow gauge ranges at this time. As noted this morning, travel will become hazardous Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, but will remain possible.

Next Update:
Thursday Evening

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8AM Wednesday

A very weak weather system will pass through the region late tonight bringing some rain showers. Temperatures should remain in the mid 30s while the rain falls, so icing is not expected to be a concern for Thursday morning. Temperatures drop into the mid-20s on Friday, setting the stage for our weekend storm. Moderate snow accumulations are currently expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

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As discussed on Sunday, a moderate winter storm is still expected to impact us this weekend. Overall, confidence remains very high in this storm taking place. Confidence also remains very high that it will produce our first measurable snowfall since December 17th! Trends for the past week have been very consistent with this storm taking place on Saturday. Over the past 48 hours, there has been a trend toward a slightly later start time. Currently, an afternoon start, between 12AM and 3PM is most likely. Thanks to cold air entering the region on Friday, the storm will begin as snow. As the storm progresses, it should pull in warmer air. This will erode the cold air and will likely result in a mix with sleet late Saturday night. Sleet is most likely after 9PM. Still can't completely rule out some liquid rain or drizzle, especially further south toward Poughkeepsie, before the storm tapers off. At this time, precipitation is most likely to end before 6AM Sunday. A chilly but quiet week should follow, with our next storm not likely until next weekend.

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As far as impacts…
Road conditions are expected to deteriorate Saturday afternoon, and remain hazardous Saturday night. However, based on the current forecast, cautious road travel will remain possible. Trends over the past 48 hours have consistently been toward a weaker storm system. Currently, it is most like that snow accumulation in Kingston will be a moderate 3 to 6 inches over roughly a 12 hour period. However, with the storm still being three days away, some shifting of the likely range can be expected within the broader extreme range. For context with the ranges, there has not been any explicit data to suggest more than 9 inches of snow for over two days now, and there has not been data to suggest less than two inches for over four days. The snow gauge ranges will continue to be refined over the next few days.

Next Update:
By 10PM Today

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7AM Sunday

This weekend has seen record smashing temperatures. As of 7AM, Poughkeepsie has already reached 67 degrees. This is our fourth warmest January temperature ever recorded. Yesterday's high of 68 tied the second warmest January temperature on record. Only January 6, 2007 was warmer with a temperature of 70. The record-breaking warmth will end later this morning, and most of the coming week will simply feature above average temperatures with calm weather. The highlight of the week looks to be a potential winter storm on Saturday as we begin to shift back toward traditional winter weather.

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Overall, the first half of the week looks very calm. A strong cold front will move through in a few hours, plunging our temperatures back down to near 30 by midnight. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday should reach the mid to upper 40s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Overnight lows should generally be in the lower 30s, which is about 15 degrees above normal. A mix of sun and clouds is anticipated during this time, but the weather should remain dry through Wednesday. Late Wednesday night, a weak disturbance will move through the region. This may trigger rain or snow showers early Thursday morning. Early morning temperatures will approach the freezing mark, so we'll have to watch for some light icing Thursday morning. Clouds thin late Thursday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures on Friday.

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On Saturday, we may see our first accumulating snowfall in nearly a month. Evidence to support a storm affecting our region began to emerge this past Wednesday. Since then, trends have consistently depicted this storm. Additionally, since Thursday, trends have consistently depicted at least some snow accumulation. Despite being a week away, confidence is fairly high (about 70%) that some form of storm will materialize and impact us next weekend. The exact timing, intensity, and precipitation types remain less certain. However, at this time, there is the potential for accumulating snow to begin Saturday morning, mix with sleet or rain in the evening, and end Saturday night. Any snow accumulation will depend largely on 1) the storm's path/intensity, and 2) how well the initial cold air remains in place.

Next Update:
On Wednesday

-Ethan

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