Tuesday December 10

Showers this afternoon; Snow tonight - maybe?
School Forecast for:
Wednesday December 11th
Last Updated: 3:30AM Tuesday December 10, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
20%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

3:30AM Tuesday

Still monitoring the potential for some light snow early Wednesday morning. In yesterday's post it was noted that the snow would be organized in a narrow swath going across southern New York, and that the placement of this swath was important. A northward shift in the eventual position of the swath of snow would bring higher accumulations closer to us, while a southward shift would decrease our snow potential. Over the past 24 hours there has been a definite southward shift, which means our snow potential has decreased since Monday morning. At this time, it is looking like the best chances for snow in NY will be down toward NYC. Most computer models currently depict the Kingston area only picking up about an inch of snow, mainly between 12AM and 7AM. However, the calculations from one of the more reliable ones has shifted so far south that it has been depicting snow almost completely missing the Kingston area.

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At this time, if snow does materialize, accumulations in the Kingston area are likely to be in the 0 to 2 inch range. That being said, it may have trouble sticking to roadways. As of 3AM, temperatures have risen to 47 degrees in High Falls and Red Hook, and will push 50 through this morning. Air temperatures likely won't fall back below freezing until around 10PM today. Even if snow materializes around that time, roads are likely to remain slightly warmer for a bit longer, plus they will be damp from rain showers that are likely to fall this afternoon. Long story short - any snow will be of pretty light intensity and may have trouble sticking to roadways. For these reasons, and because of the relatively low confidence in snow actually developing, will hold off on adjusting the probabilities until later today.

Next Update:
Tuesday Evening

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3:30AM Monday

After a chilly, but pleasant weekend, an active week is on tap! Rain will fall today, with a chance of rain on Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly looking at some light snow before the sun comes out on Thursday. Clouds increase Friday with rain back in the picture by the weekend.

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Today. A storm moving through the Great Lakes will send a surge of warm(er) moist air through the region today into Tuesday. Looking for a steady rain to develop after 7AM and last throughout much of the day. Steady rain is likely to taper off or to showers Monday night. Clouds remain on Tuesday with just a chance of rain showers throughout the day. Temperatures should reach the mid-40s this afternoon and remain steady or rise a few degrees Monday night, likely getting up near 50 by mid-day Tuesday. Tuesday morning should feel quite mild.

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Tuesday afternoon, a strong cold front will move through. After peaking near 50, Tuesday's temperatures will fall below freezing after sunset. As the leading edge of cold air barrels through it will trigger a swath of precipitation across parts of the region. At this time, it appears likely that this precipitation will affect us. Precipitation may start before temperatures fall below freezing Tuesday night, so a new round of rain showers will be possible Tuesday evening. However, it appears that any rain showers may changeover to snow Tuesday night as temperatures fall into the upper 20s. There is the potential for light snow between roughly 10PM Tuesday and 7AM Wednesday. Once any snow stops on Wednesday, it should be dry through Friday. The second half of the week will be much colder with temperatures in the teens to 30s.

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Regarding the snow potential for Tuesday night… confidence in snow actually materializing is moderate. At this time, snow is likely to fall in a swath along an axis that parallels the coast from Virginia to Boston. Exactly where this swath lines up will play a large role in how much snow we see. Here in NY, it currently appears that this swath should be mainly south of Albany, with the best snow potential south of Ulster County. If the eventual placement of this snow swath is further south than currently projected, our snow potential will decrease; if it is further north, our snow potential will increase. These possibilities are currently reflected in the "extreme range" on the snow gauge. Based on the timing and potential amounts, there is currently potential for impacts to the Wednesday morning commute.

Next Update:
On Tuesday

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