Monday December 2

Black ice overnight
School Forecast for:
Tuesday December 3rd
Last Updated: 3:45PM Monday December 2, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
60%
(Medium) 20%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)

Update: 3:45PM Monday

A large snow band has been pivoting around the mid-Hudson Valley today. This band has been resulting in moderate to heavy snow from the Capital District to Central New York, and then arching to our south through New Jersey and parts of the NYC metro area. Parts of the Capital District have already received 20+ inches with 12+ toward Central NY. Had this band shifted just a few dozen miles and pivoted over us, then the mid-Hudson Valley could have ended up with very high snow totals - this was the concern earlier this weekend.

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This band of snow should gradually shift eastward as the evening progresses. This will keep the snow threat going into the night. If there is going to be another round of snow it will most likely be between 7PM and 12PM. Probably looking at no more than another inch or two of snow accumulation. Temperatures are currently right around 32 degrees, but are likely to fall to the lower 20s overnight, so black ice will be a widespread concern. Can't rule out some local school districts having regular classes or cancelling, but at this time I'm expecting quite a few delayed openings.

I'll see how things progress throughout the evening and check back in with an update by 10PM. As mentioned last night, I'm forecasting from Philadelphia this winter, so it's a bit difficult to get an idea of current road conditions. If you do have any road condition reports/pictures or snowfall measurements that you'd like to share on the Facebook Page they'd definitely be appreciated.

-Ethan

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Update: 7:00PM Sunday

Quick update to note that a slew of cancellations have already been hoisted across Ulster County. The remainder of the districts are likely to follow suite.

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Looking at information from weather stations in High Falls and Red Hook, it looks like snow began right around 1PM in Kingston. So far it looks like High Falls is nearing 6 inches while Red Hook appears to be closer to 3 inches at this time. I suspect Kingston is somewhere between these two amounts (I'm forecasting from Philadelphia this winter).

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As 6PM, freezing rain was reported in Poughkeepsie, so if snow has not already mixed with sleet, it may do so at any time. Light snow sleet and freezing rain accumulations are expected overnight as the main round of precipitation continues across the region. As far as tomorrow's additional snow… its really looking very underwhelming compared to the potential that existed earlier. This is largely due to the bulk of tomorrow's snow trending south of the region. We're probably only looking at another 3 to 6 inches of accumulation for the remainder of the storm.

Enjoy the remainder of your extra-extended weekend!

-Ethan

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Update: 10AM Sunday

Welcome to December!
Today marks the first day of Meteorological Winter (yeah its a real thing), so I just released my Season Snowfall Forecast: Link. And… the winter weather is right on queue. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a slight downward trend in the total accumulation forecasts, but the impacts from this storm will remain the same: hazardous travel conditions through Monday evening.

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Morning radar reveals the large nature of this storm. Precipitation is currently working its way through Pennsylvania, and should arrive in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Snow should begin by about 1PM. Snow sticks quickly to all surfaces making travel hazardous. Moderate to periodically heavy intensity through 5PM with a quick couple inches likely. After 5PM, snow will likely begin to mix with sleet. After 10PM, precipitation will become lighter and more intermittent with light snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the night. This combination will limit overnight accumulations, but will keep roads slick. Most of the Sunday/Sunday night accumulations will be before 10PM. There will likely be 5 to 9 inches by 7AM Monday.

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Over the past 24 hours, there has been a trend toward lighter precipitation on Monday. Steady snow should redevelop by about 7AM Monday. Snow will likely continue into Monday evening. With a chance of light snow into Monday night. There is still the potential for periods of heavier snow on Monday, but currently, looking for about 3 to 6 inches throughout the day on Monday.

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Please use caution if you must travel over the next 36 hours. The greatest road impacts will likely be late this afternoon when heavy snowfall rates are possible. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon. Overnight travel will be impacted by potential light icing on top of the snow. Monday will remain hazardous.

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Update: 11AM Saturday

Major winter storm will arrive in about 24 hours. The storm will come in two phases, each capable of being their own notable storm. This will produce a prolonged period of accumulating snow with hazardous travel impacts Sunday morning through Monday night.

The main points:
Snow Starts between 10AM and 1PM Sunday. Roads and walkways quickly become snow covered. Travel becomes hazardous by early afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow Sunday afternoon/evening. Lighter Snow/sleet Sunday night. Steady snow redeveloping around 4AM Monday. Continuous snow, heavy at times, through Monday night. Hazardous travel through Monday night.
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First phase.
Sunday through Sunday night.
The storm will move across the Great Lakes. As it does, it will send a warm front containing moist air across our region. Cold air locked-in on the ground will force the warm air into the upper atmosphere, squeezing the moisture out of it. Still expecting storm to start between 10AM and 1PM. An initial burst of snow is likely in a band of moderate to heavy intensity through about 4PM. There's likely to be 3 to 6 inches by sunset. After about 4PM Snow will likely begin to mix with sleet. This remains noteworthy because sleet does not accumulate as well as snow. After about 10PM Sunday, there should be a notable decrease in the intensity of the snow/sleet, and we still can't completely rule out a brief lull. However, we will begin to enter the second phase around 4AM Monday with steady snow re-developing. Exact snow totals during this first phase will depend on exactly where the afternoon bands of heavy snow develop and on how much sleet mixes in Sunday night, it currently appears that we're likely to be in the 6 to 10 inch range by 7AM Monday.

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Second phase.
Early Monday AM through Monday Night.
This phase of the storm will be triggered as the main storm center over the Great Lakes decays and reorganized along the coast. The new coastal storm will allow steady snow to redevelop by about 4AM Monday. A steady snow is expected throughout the day. Like Sunday afternoon, bands of heavier snow may develop. Over the past day, there has been a trend that has heavier bands of snow impacting the mid-Hudson Valley more, and this has resulted in increased snow forecasts. Generally, these higher trends suggest an additional 4 to 8 inches of snow after 7AM Monday, however, it is worth noting that there are few data outliers that suggest up to additional 10 inches on Monday. Because of the potential for heavy bands of snow, and because steady snow is likely to continue for at least 12 hours on Monday, I am choosing to recognize these potential "outliers" in the "extreme range" at this time. Snow is likely to taper off between 7PM Monday and 12AM Tuesday. Confidence in this part of the forecast is moderate. Snow accumulations on Monday will depend on where any heavier bands of snow set up, which is difficult to determine before the storm begins, and is particularly difficult in this storm since there are two phases.

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The range of accumulation possibilities with this storm is larger than normal, so it's better to focus on the likely impacts than the exact amounts. The bottomline with this storm remains that heavy snow accumulation will significantly disrupt travel Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Because of the long duration of this storm, and the potential for significant snow amounts, if you must clear walkways, I recommend going out every few hours to do so, opposed to waiting until the end. With temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s for this storm, it will be fairly wet and the weight will add up by Monday night. At least Sunday evening before bed, and Monday morning when you wake up would be my personal targets to shovel the driveway. I will not be able to post an update tonight, but will do so tomorrow morning.

Next Update
Sunday Morning

-Ethan

Impact Probabilities
Updated: 11:00AM Saturday November 30th
Valid through Friday December 6th

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Delay Nope
Very Low
High
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Closing
Closed
Very High
Medium
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Dismissal
Nope
Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Snow/ice Very High
Very High
Very Low Very Low Low Very Low
Rain Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
< 32°F
High
High
High High Medium Medium
Windy
Very Low Very Low
Low Very Low Low
Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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Since January 2009
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