Sunday November 10

Tuesday morning rain, ending as snow
School Forecast for:
Tuesday November 12th
Last Updated: 9:10PM Sunday November 10, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

Update: 9PM Sunday

Just a quick update to note that there have been no significant changes today. Still expecting Tuesday morning's storm to begin as rain, likely in the 2AM to 4AM timeframe. Temperatures remain likely to fall below freezing in the 7AM to 9AM timeframe, with a changeover to snow possible around that time. Chance of snow throughout the rest of the morning, with up to an inch or so of accumulation still possible. Based on these timings and amounts, no changes to the cancellation probabilities are warranted at this time. Will check back in tomorrow afternoon.


10AM Sunday

Good morning! Another chilly and mostly quiet week is slated for us here in the Hudson Valley. At this time, one storm system is expected to impact us Tuesday morning with a period of rain/sleet ending as snow.

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Today and tomorrow will round out the extended holiday weekend on an overcast, but relatively mild note. Temperatures will reach the 40s both days with no precipitation expected. Late Monday night, however, our next storm system will arrive. The structure of this next storm is almost identical to the one we had on Thursday. What will happen is another strong cold front will dive across the central United States. As it does, it will force a plume of moisture up the east coast from Texas to Maine. The forward half of this plume will consist of rain, while the cold air on its back side will allow for snow. The snow on the backside will stretch from Maine, through interior NY, possibly as far south as Arkansas and Tennessee. The radar from Thursday afternoon, pictured below, is very similar to how Tuesday morning's should look.

37b8d09122bb4b6bcb4589b5c1c094732a74b506.png

Here in Kingston, we will likely see rain (maybe with some sleet) ending as a period of snow Tuesday morning. After temperatures peak in the 40s on Monday, they will gradually fall Monday night. Precipitation from the approaching storm will likely arrive sometime after 2am Tuesday. At this time, temperatures are likely to still be slightly above freezing, and either rain or a mix of rain and sleet is most likely. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout Tuesday morning, and a changeover to snow will be possible, likely around or after 7AM. Any snow is likely to taper off around 11am, but temperatures will continue to fall. The warmest temperatures on Tuesday will be in the early morning, and by Tuesday afternoon temperatures are likely to be in the upper 20s. At this time, if there are any snow accumulations on Tuesday, they could accumulate to about an inch, mainly between 7AM and 11AM. For this storm, the "extreme range" of snowfall is currently 0 to 4 inches. The low end could occur if the storm tapers off before we fall below freezing - this is what happened on Thursday. The high end would happen if temperatures fall faster than currently projected, resulting in a quicker changeover to snow.

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Temperatures continue to fall Tuesday night and should bottom out in the upper teens Wednesday morning. We'll likely struggle to get above freezing on Wednesday, but should moderate back to the 40s by Friday. Wednesday through Friday will feature intervals of clouds and sun, but should be dry. For now, held off on any delay/cancellation probabilities for Tuesday as the timing of the possible changeover to snow appears to be too late in the morning. I'll try to post a very brief update on Tuesday's storm by 10PM tonight, otherwise the next update will be by 9AM Monday.

-Ethan

Impact Probabilities
Updated: 10AM Sunday November 10th
Valid through the weekend of November 16th/17th

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Closing
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Medium
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Rain Very Low Medium
Very Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
< 32°F
Low
High
High
Medium Medium
High
High Wind
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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