Monday November 17

Patchy Rain Monday; AM ice concern
School Forecast through:
Monday November 18th
Last Updated: 8:20AM Sunday November 17, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
20%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

Update: 8:20 AM Sunday

This morning's satellite imagery depicts our very large coastal storm currently off the coast of the Carolinas. This storm will move up the coast bringing a chance of precipitation to the area beginning Monday morning. Over the past day, there have been some adjustments to the forecast… read on for the updates.

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… Patchy rain showers Monday …

Since yesterday morning, it has been looking increasingly likely that the coastal storm will stay a bit further away from the coast than initially expected. This actually decreases our chances for a steady rain during the day on Monday. Instead, it is looking more likely that Ulster County will see patchy rain showers Monday with periodic dry periods throughout the day. At this time, it is looking like the steadier rain should stay just east of New York State. Temperatures are still expected to fall to around freezing Sunday night, and as mentioned yesterday there is the potential for light freezing rain if the precipitation moves in early enough. At this time, the trend actually appears for the storm to begin impacting us later - maybe not until after 5AM, so KingstonSnows still views the school impact threat as minimal. However, the National Weather Service has issues a Winter Weather Advisory for light freezing rain that begins at 1AM Monday. Their thinking is that if any precipitation does develop that early, it could lead to some slick conditions. Have raised slight probabilities to reflect the concern of the National Weather Service. A batch of steadier precipitation trailing the main storm could bring some steadier rain from about 12AM Tuesday into Tuesday morning. Again, looking like more rain with this trailing batch, but will have to monitor for icing Tuesday morning as well.


11:30 AM Saturday

Good morning!
A generally calm week is on tap, the one exception will be a large nor'easter that will impact us on Monday with mainly rain. Temperatures this week will be much more tolerable than last week when record lows were set. On Wednesday the 13th, Poughkeepsie set a daily record low of 15 degrees while Slide Mountain fell to just 4 degrees. Here in Kingston temperatures fell to 17, while the town of Croghan in northern NY reached 12 degrees below zero! Also on Wednesday, Pougkeepsie only got up to 32 degrees, which was the third earliest day in any autumn to fail to get above freezing.

Getting to the forecast…

Today's clear conditions will persist into Sunday. Both days should see temperatures reach the mid-30s. Currently, the aforementioned nor'easter is just beginning to develop off the coast of the Carolinas. Clouds will start to thicken Sunday afternoon as the coastal storm approaches. The storm will begin to impact us early Monday morning, likely after 3AM. At this time, it is looking like temperatures should fall to right around the freezing mark Sunday night. This will create the possibility for a period of freezing rain early Monday much like we saw last week, so we will need to watch the local temperatures Sunday night. That being said, icing is not currently expected to be a significant issue, and a mainly rain event is expected. A steadier rain will move in as Monday progresses with rain tapering off Monday evening. At this time, we're likely looking at half an inch of rain on Monday with temperatures rising to around 40 degrees.

Once the storm passes, we'll see a stretch of calm weather. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday should all be clear. All three days should generally see overnight temperatures falling to around 30 degrees and afternoon temperatures warming into the 40s. On Friday, a weak storm should skirt the region. This will produce clouds and possibly some rain showers. Temperatures on Friday will likely approach 50. Colder air should filter in behind Friday's storm and last for the weekend.

-Ethan

Impact Probabilities
Updated: 11:30 Saturday November 16th
Valid through the weekend of November 23/24th

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Closing
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Rain High Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Low
Very Low
< 32°F
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium Very Low
High
High Wind
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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Since January 2009
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