Monday November 11

Slick morning conditions possible
School Forecast for:
Tuesday November 12th
Last Updated: 10:00PM Monday November 11, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
30%
(Low) 40%
(Medium) 0%
(Nope)

Update: 10PM Monday

Local temperatures have continued to fall, and are now below freezing. As of 9:45PM, Kingston is at 32 degrees. Wallkill is at 33, High Falls is at 31, and Red Hook is reporting 30. Because of this, it is increasingly likely that the storm will begin as a period of freezing rain - rain that freezes on or just before reaching the ground. The latest projections have the precipitation arriving between 4AM and 5AM, which is a bit late as far as school impacts go, hence the probabilities remaining slightly less than likely (less than 50%) - additionally, with temperatures having reached the upper 40s earlier today, the roads are probably slightly warmer than the air. But with temperatures likely to continue falling and a changeover to snow still expected for a while, the risk of slick conditions is likely to increase as the morning commute progresses. This will be the final post on this storm. We'll see what happens.


Update: 8:15PM Monday

Just after posting the last update, I did one more check of the local conditions. Was a little surprised to see that temperatures had already fallen to 35 degrees in Wallkill, 33 in High Falls, and 32 in Red Hook. Kingston stations are currently reporting 33 to 34. Although temperatures may just hold steady through the rest of the night before the cold front arrives, with temperatures on the ground already just a degree or two above freezing, this does increase the potential for some sort of icing to occur earlier than initially projected. Because precipitation is projected to start around 4AM and likely continue through 11AM, if snow/icing did start right away, impaired road conditions would likely last through the morning, so cancellations would be slightly more likely than delays. The probabilities have been updated to reflect this possibility.


Update: 7:40PM Monday

Current radar shows the latest storm taking shape over the eastern United States. A frigid airmass is sweeping across the central US. Behind the leading edge of this cold air temperatures are in the teens and 20s across the mid-west. Ahead of it, temperatures range from the 50s in NYC to the 70s down south. A large plume of moisture from Texas to Maine marks the dividing line with rain along its front edge and snow on the back half. The divide is so strong that both Maine and Texas are currently observing rain on the leading edge of the moisture and both are observing snow on the back side. Upstate NY (Adirondacks) will see nearly a foot of snow from this storm.

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Here in Ulster County, temperatures peaked around 50 this afternoon, and have since fallen into the upper 30s. Temperatures will likely continue to either hold steady or gradually fall this evening, but possibly rise a few degrees with a more substantial drop occurring after sunrise. Light rain is likely to develop around 4AM. A changeover to snow still remains likely in the 7AM to 9AM timeframe, with light snow through about 11AM. Still looking at the potential for very light snow accumulation through the morning. If there are any snow accumulations, they are likely to be less than an inch.

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Based on the timing of any snow and the potential amounts, school impacts are unlikely. The changeover to snow is projected to be too late in the morning to result in a delay or cancellation. If snow were projected to continue further into the afternoon, or amount to greater accumulations, then an early dismissal would be possible, but that is not the case for this storm. Other than it being bitterly cold Wednesday & Thursday, with lows in the teens and highs in the 30s, no significant weather is anticipated for the rest of the week.


Update: 9PM Sunday

Just a quick update to note that there have been no significant changes today. Still expecting Tuesday morning's storm to begin as rain, likely in the 2AM to 4AM timeframe. Temperatures remain likely to fall below freezing in the 7AM to 9AM timeframe, with a changeover to snow possible around that time. Chance of snow throughout the rest of the morning, with up to an inch or so of accumulation still possible. Based on these timings and amounts, no changes to the cancellation probabilities are warranted at this time. Will check back in tomorrow afternoon.


10AM Sunday

Good morning! Another chilly and mostly quiet week is slated for us here in the Hudson Valley. At this time, one storm system is expected to impact us Tuesday morning with a period of rain/sleet ending as snow.

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Today and tomorrow will round out the extended holiday weekend on an overcast, but relatively mild note. Temperatures will reach the 40s both days with no precipitation expected. Late Monday night, however, our next storm system will arrive. The structure of this next storm is almost identical to the one we had on Thursday. What will happen is another strong cold front will dive across the central United States. As it does, it will force a plume of moisture up the east coast from Texas to Maine. The forward half of this plume will consist of rain, while the cold air on its back side will allow for snow. The snow on the backside will stretch from Maine, through interior NY, possibly as far south as Arkansas and Tennessee. The radar from Thursday afternoon, pictured below, is very similar to how Tuesday morning's should look.

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Here in Kingston, we will likely see rain (maybe with some sleet) ending as a period of snow Tuesday morning. After temperatures peak in the 40s on Monday, they will gradually fall Monday night. Precipitation from the approaching storm will likely arrive sometime after 2am Tuesday. At this time, temperatures are likely to still be slightly above freezing, and either rain or a mix of rain and sleet is most likely. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout Tuesday morning, and a changeover to snow will be possible, likely around or after 7AM. Any snow is likely to taper off around 11am, but temperatures will continue to fall. The warmest temperatures on Tuesday will be in the early morning, and by Tuesday afternoon temperatures are likely to be in the upper 20s. At this time, if there are any snow accumulations on Tuesday, they could accumulate to about an inch, mainly between 7AM and 11AM. For this storm, the "extreme range" of snowfall is currently 0 to 4 inches. The low end could occur if the storm tapers off before we fall below freezing - this is what happened on Thursday. The high end would happen if temperatures fall faster than currently projected, resulting in a quicker changeover to snow.

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Temperatures continue to fall Tuesday night and should bottom out in the upper teens Wednesday morning. We'll likely struggle to get above freezing on Wednesday, but should moderate back to the 40s by Friday. Wednesday through Friday will feature intervals of clouds and sun, but should be dry. For now, held off on any delay/cancellation probabilities for Tuesday as the timing of the possible changeover to snow appears to be too late in the morning. I'll try to post a very brief update on Tuesday's storm by 10PM tonight, otherwise the next update will be by 9AM Monday.

-Ethan

Impact Probabilities
Updated: 10AM Sunday November 10th
Valid through the weekend of November 16th/17th

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Closing
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Medium
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Rain Very Low Medium
Very Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
< 32°F
Low
High
High
Medium Medium
High
High Wind
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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