Tuesday November 5

Probably mostly rain Thursday night
School Forecast for:
Friday November 8th
Last Updated: 7:00PM Tuesday November 5, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
20%
(Low) 0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

Update: 7PM Tuesday

Since Sunday, KingstonSnows has been watching a potential storm for Thursday night. Yesterday it was determined that the storm would likely impact us, but there was uncertainty in how quickly temperatures would fall, which would ultimately determine how long it would take rain to turn to any snow. Over the past 24 hours, it has become increasingly likely that temperatures will fall relatively slowly. Additionally, it is looking like the storm may end a bit earlier in the night than it initially appeared. This combination means that the probability of a notable snow event has decreased, and the storm will likely be mainly rain.

Thursday will start off calm. Temperatures will likely begin in the mid-30s, and rise to the mid-40s by afternoon. Rain is still expected to develop Thursday afternoon, with the most likely timeframe currently being between 2pm and 5pm. Temperatures should gradually fall Thursday night, likely falling below freezing after midnight. At this time, it appears that precipitation could taper off as early as 10pm/11pm or that it could linger through about 4am. Because of this, it is possible that the storm could end early as cold rain, possibly with wet snowflakes toward midnight. It also remains possible that we could see a brief period of just wet snowflakes as the storm tapers off.

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Precipitation should be relatively light and the snow opportunity limited to at most three or so hours, so if we were to see a period of just snow, any snow accumulations would likely be less than an inch at this time. This is currently supported by all of today's computer guidance - although some had been suggesting the potential for notable snow accumulations over the past few days, none currently suggest measurable snow accumulations. Temperatures should bottom out in the upper 20's to around 30 Friday morning, so the risk of widespread black ice appears relatively minor at this time. KingstonSnows will continue to monitor the timing of the temperature drop and the storm ending, which as previously mentioned will influence any snow.

Next Update:
Wednesday Evening

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Update: 7PM Monday

KingstonSnows continues to watch a potential storm for Thursday night. A strong cold front remains expected to approach the region on Thursday. This front will push a surge of moisture in front of it that will generate rain with snow along its northern edges. Yesterday there was uncertainty in whether the storm would stay to our south and miss us, or move far enough north to affect us. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a significant trend toward a more northern track. Today's trends suggest that Ulster County is likely to experience precipitation Thursday evening through Friday morning.

Question: Can the track projections continue to shift putting the storm more out of our reach? Certainly, and some shifting is expected. However, we are now only three days out from the storm, and the shifts that have taken place over the past 24 hours represent different simulations coming into better agreement. As a result, there is more confidence in the current projections than there was last night. Got a question? Shoot a message on Facebook!

At this time, the most likely arrival time for precipitation is between 3pm and 7pm on Thursday. Temperatures are still expected to reach the mid to upper 40s on Thursday, so the precipitation will likely begin as rain. As temperatures fall throughout the night rain will likely mix with with snow, and we could very well see a changeover to wet snow at some point. The main uncertainty now is how quickly temperatures fall Thursday night. This will play a large role in determining how quickly rain changes to snow. At this time, a changeover somewhere between 9pm and 1am is possible, and we could potentially see several hours of plain wet snow before the storm clears out between 5am and 10am.

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In summary: Over the past 24 hours, the probability of a storm Thursday night has increased. Some form of precipitation is now more likely than not Thursday night. Currently, the most likely scenario is evening rain, mixing with snow late Thursday night, possibly ending as all snow Friday morning. Snow accumulations are possible, but remain questionable due mainly to uncertainty in how fast temperatures fall Thursday night.

Next Update:
Tuesday Evening

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9PM Sunday

Hello, everyone and welcome to November 2019! This year will be Kingston Snow's 12th (yikes!) winter season of publishing forecasts on this site, and I'm looking forward to it. So, let's get to the forecast. Overall, this week looks to be calm, but I'm monitoring the potential for the first snow to fall on Thursday.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

Week starts of calm.

This week will start off a tad chilly, but seasonable. Average high temperatures this time of year are in the mid-50s and average low temperatures are in the lower 30s, and this is right where we'll be. The week starts off calm on Monday. Clouds should increase throughout the day on Monday as a weak storm system passes through southern Canada. Clouds will last through Tuesday, and we can't completely rule out a rain shower on Tuesday as a weak cold front passes through. However, as it stands right now, Tuesday looks to be mostly dry. Conditions will clear on Wednesday.

Monitoring *possible* rain/snow for Thursday.

Things could get a little interesting on Thursday. On Thursday a strong cold front will approach the region. This front will have two effects. The first and most certain effect is that it will drop our temperatures considerably heading into the weekend. We're likely to wake up to temperatures well below freezing Friday and Saturday with both days struggling to reach even 40 degrees. The second effect of the front on Thursday is that it'll likely allow a surge of moisture to flow up the east coast ahead of the cold air. This "surge of moisture" will likely present as a large blob of rain with snow possible along the northern edge. At this time, it is uncertain how far up the coast this blob of rain and possible snow will track. So far, the most consistent trends have had it staying south of New York. If this were to happen, then Thursday would be dry. However, over the past 24 hours, there has been more support for a more northward track with some scenarios producing an accumulating snowfall across southern New York. If this second scenario were to happen, Ulster County could see rain Thursday evening possibly changing to sleet or snow Thursday night. The magnitude of any accumulations, if they occur, would depend on how far north the storm moves. I would like to see more consistency in the trends for this second scenario, before putting too much weight on it.

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Image Caption: On this snow gauge, each of the three shapes represents a different computer model. The green dots represent snowfall calculations (in inches) that were generated today, the blue dots are from yesterday. Most suggest no snow, but the few outliers are worth noting. KingstonSnows will be monitoring them.

At this time, snow is less than likely Thursday night, but it is possible. Over the past 24 hours, the probability of any snow has increased. I will be monitoring the trends this week and checking in with brief daily updates.

-Ethan

Next Update:
Monday Evening

Impact Probabilities
Updated: 8PM Sunday November 3rd
Valid through the weekend of November 9th/10th

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low Very Low
Closing
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Low
Very Low
Rain Very Low Low Very Low Low
Very Low Very Low
< 32°F
Low
Very Low
Low
Medium High High
High Wind
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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