Sunday November 3

Welcome to November!
School Forecast through:
Thursday November 7th
Last Updated: 9:00PM Sunday November 3, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

9PM Sunday

Hello, everyone and welcome to November 2019! This year will be Kingston Snow's 12th (yikes!) winter season of publishing forecasts on this site, and I'm looking forward to it. So, let's get to the forecast. Overall, this week looks to be calm, but I'm monitoring the potential for the first snow to fall on Thursday.

mHCFFA2.png
Click image for larger and clearer version

Week starts of calm.

This week will start off a tad chilly, but seasonable. Average high temperatures this time of year are in the mid-50s and average low temperatures are in the lower 30s, and this is right where we'll be. The week starts off calm on Monday. Clouds should increase throughout the day on Monday as a weak storm system passes through southern Canada. Clouds will last through Tuesday, and we can't completely rule out a rain shower on Tuesday as a weak cold front passes through. However, as it stands right now, Tuesday looks to be mostly dry. Conditions will clear on Wednesday.

Monitoring *possible* rain/snow for Thursday.

Things could get a little interesting on Thursday. On Thursday a strong cold front will approach the region. This front will have two effects. The first and most certain effect is that it will drop our temperatures considerably heading into the weekend. We're likely to wake up to temperatures well below freezing Friday and Saturday with both days struggling to reach even 40 degrees. The second effect of the front on Thursday is that it'll likely allow a surge of moisture to flow up the east coast ahead of the cold air. This "surge of moisture" will likely present as a large blob of rain with snow possible along the northern edge. At this time, it is uncertain how far up the coast this blob of rain and possible snow will track. So far, the most consistent trends have had it staying south of New York. If this were to happen, then Thursday would be dry. However, over the past 24 hours, there has been more support for a more northward track with some scenarios producing an accumulating snowfall across southern New York. If this second scenario were to happen, Ulster County could see rain Thursday evening possibly changing to sleet or snow Thursday night. The magnitude of any accumulations, if they occur, would depend on how far north the storm moves. I would like to see more consistency in the trends for this second scenario, before putting too much weight on it.

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Image Caption: On this snow gauge, each of the three shapes represents a different computer model. The green dots represent snowfall calculations (in inches) that were generated today, the blue dots are from yesterday. Most suggest no snow, but the few outliers are worth noting. KingstonSnows will be monitoring them.

At this time, snow is less than likely Thursday night, but it is possible. Over the past 24 hours, the probability of any snow has increased. I will be monitoring the trends this week and checking in with brief daily updates.

-Ethan

Next Update:
Monday Evening

Impact Probabilities
Updated: 8PM Sunday November 3rd
Valid through the weekend of November 9th/10th

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekend
Delay Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low Very Low
Closing
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dismissal
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Snow/ice Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Low
Very Low
Rain Very Low Low Very Low Low
Very Low Very Low
< 32°F
Low
Very Low
Low
Medium High High
High Wind
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Delay, Closing, and Dismissal refer to potential school impacts. All other categories are weather conditions. Impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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