Wednesday February 27

More snow overnight
School Forecast for:
Thursday February 28th
Last Updated: 8:15PM Wednesday February 27, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
(Medium) 10%

8:00PM Wednesday

Overall, tonight's storm has pretty much been performing as forecast. Since snow developed in Kingston just before 1PM, just under an inch has accumulated. The much anticipated lull is just arriving. It is likely to last through about 11PM before snow rates pick up again. A final round of steady snow is likely between 11PM and 3AM. Snow should end around 3AM. An additional inch or so of snow is possible.


Despite today's snow starting an hour earlier than the snow that resulted in last week's early dismissal, Kingston did not dismiss early today. Very light snowfall rates earlier today were the reason, but it kind of illustrates the difficulties in trying to anticipate the decisions that others will make while they themselves are trying to anticipate an event that has yet to begin. In either case, county-wide delays do look more than likely for tomorrow due to lingering road conditions.


Looking ahead… DO NOT expect a quick transition to spring for at least the first half of March. The upcoming week looks very wintery. Saturday night, there's the potential for a quick shot of light snow. However, there is the potential for a much more notable storm Sunday into Monday. There is the potential for a swath of snow that would be heaviest along the coast, but we're definitely in the potential accumulation zone. A period of below normal temperatures with temperatures well below freezing is likely to follow the storm. A full update will be posted tomorrow.


5:30AM Wednesday

Early morning radar depicts snow over western NY. This is confirmed by webcams in the area. Expecting snow to progress eastward this morning, reaching the Ulster County Catskills by late morning. Expecting the first flakes to begin in Kingston by about 1PM. An initial pulse of snow is likely, but there still looks to be somewhat of a lull as the snow shifts just to our north during the late afternoon between about 3/4PM and 7/8PM. Snow then redevelops. Ends around 4AM.


Still expecting about 2 to 4 inches of light fluffy snow. Accumulations through the afternoon will be light - perhaps less than half an inch, however, because it is only 16 degrees in Kingston and because temperatures are only likely to rise to about 20-25 degrees by this afternoon, everything that falls is likely to stick. Roads will become slick very easily today. Regardless of what schools decide, use good judgement and stay safe out there! An update will be posted between 8PM and 10PM tonight.


7:30PM Tuesday

The bottomline: There will be an increasing probability of snow throughout tomorrow afternoon with steady snow likely by evening. Snow will accumulate on roads making for hazardous travel conditions late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.


The Details: Snow will approach Ulster County around 12PM tomorrow. Snow may take several hours to fully overspread the county, but the first flakes are likely to fall before 4PM. After an initial start, there is the potential for a lull to develop between about 3PM and 7PM. The best chances for this lull will be across southern portions of the county toward New Paltz and Poughkeepsie. However, if the lull does develop, a steady snow should resume everywhere by 7PM. Temperatures will be in the teens before the storm and around 20 during it. This means that everything that falls will stick. It also means that road conditions will deteriorate quickly once steady snow does develop. Snow persists overnight before ending by about 5AM Thursday.


The impacts: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for hazardous travel from 3PM Wednesday to 6AM Thursday. While the exact timing of the first snow flakes remains a little bit fuzzy, the potential for hazardous road impacts will increase throughout the afternoon. In some areas the steadier snow may hold off until the evening, but with the real potential for an initial batch of snow during the afternoon, early dismissals are increasingly likely across the County. Areas in the Catskills are expected to have early dismissals. If there are Ulster County districts that do not dismiss early, they are likely to be located toward the southeast corner around New Paltz and Poughkeepsie. If districts do not dismiss early, then after school activities are almost certain to be cancelled. Lingering road conditions are likely to result in delays on Thursday.


A brief update will likely be posted early tomorrow morning.


9:45AM Tuesday

Accumulating snow event still expected Wednesday into Thursday. Still some uncertainty in how early snow begins to fall. Earliest reasonable time that snow could begin in Kingston is about 1PM Wednesday. The probability of snow will gradually increase throughout the afternoon with snow likely by 7PM. It is possible that we could see snow start up for a while, stop, and then restart. Long story short - it's currently difficult to identify a clear cut beginning time with this system. That being said, steady snow eventually develops. Overnight, there really hasn't been any significant changes in the forecast amounts. Generally, up to about 4 inches seems likely. Snow is likely to end early Thursday morning around 4AM or 5AM.

Outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

As far as school impacts go, early dismissals are possible Wednesday. Delays are likely Thursday. Have opted to raise the early dismissal probabilities slightly, however, due to the lingering uncertainty in the timing I will remain conservative at this time keeping Kingston's probabilities below the 50% mark. The best chances for early dismissals across Ulster County will be out toward the Catskills where snow has the best chance of starting early - this includes including TriValley and Onteora. Of all Ulster County schools, the least likely to experience early dismissals will be to the southeast toward Poughkeepsie - this includes Marlboro, Wallkill, and Highland. Kingston, New Paltz, and Rondout are in the middle. Lingering impacts are likely to result in delays Thursday morning. Can't completely rule out a cancellation, but that'll depend on how the storm performs.

We'll see how today trends, and an update will be posted by 10PM.


5PM Monday

The wind is still kicking outside. So far the average sustained wind speed in Kingston has been 6 mph. The highest sustained windspeed has been 21 mph. And the highest wind gust has been 31 mph. Wallkill recorded a 49 mph wind gust early this morning while western New York has seen gusts up to 74 mph! Winds will persist, but will gradually subside this evening.

Attention now turns to our next snow event.


Today, there has been increasing support for a quick snow event beginning Wednesday afternoon. A rather weak storm system will pass by quickly, but clip the region. This clipper seems poised to bring moderate impacts to the region. At this time, looking for light snow, mainly after 1PM Wednesday. Snow is likely during the evening and overnight hours before ending early Thursday morning before sunrise.


General accumulations look to be in the 1 to 3 inch range, but could easily shift to the 2 to 4 inch range. Unlike many of our recent storms, this storm looks to be all snow - no sleet and no ice. Temperatures will generally be in the mid teens leading up to the snowfall and top out in the low 20s during the storm. This means that everything that falls will stick - once steady snow begins to fall, road conditions will begin to deteriorate relatively quickly depending on snowfall rates. Based on the current potential timing, early dismissals will eventually be likely across Ulster County on Wednesday, but we still have time for confidence to increase.

An update will be posted by 10AM tomorrow along with an update Tuesday night.


11:30PM Sunday

The main weather factor early this week will be wind into Monday. The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning for all of eastern New York for sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph and gusts in excess of 50 mph. Across the Catskills, winds in the 20 to 40 mph range should certainly be expected throughout the day. However, because the winds will be from the west, areas between the mountain and the river (specifically from Highland to Saugerties) are likely to be somewhat sheltered. Maximum sustained winds in the Kingston area should remain toward the lower end of the 20 to 40 mph range, likely maxing out around 20-25 mph in the Kingston area. Higher wind gusts are likely. With the gusty winds there is the potential for downed branches and power outages. Peak winds should be Monday afternoon with diminishing winds into the evening. Any school impacts are likely to be highly localized depending on where potential power outages occur. It is possible that if there are outages, individual schools within school districts may be affected. This was the case after Tropical Storm Lee brought wind and flooding in 2011. During that storm Kingston City Schools operated on a 2 hour delay, but Anna Devine elementary was closed - likely due to power outage or inaccessibility from downed branches. Since 2004, the Kingston City School District as a whole has never closed, delayed, or dismissed early just for a wind event or power outages. Periods of sleet are possible overnight, but are not expected to amount to anything.

As far as snow this week, still a chance of snow mid-week snow. Trends this weekend have been for the best chance of snow to stay to our north with a relatively brief window for light snow accumulation Wednesday night. At this time, less than two inches of snow is possible Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.


10:30AM Friday

The upcoming week will feature generally calm conditions. The exceptions will be Sunday and possibly Wednesday.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

The weekend starts calm on Saturday. Saturday evening, a storm system will approach the region. Expecting this storm to arrive early Saturday night, likely after 7PM. There's a slight chance of some sleet at the onset, but no accumulation or impacts are expected at this time. Any sleet changes to all rain shortly after beginning. Rain continues Saturday night into Sunday morning. Storm ends by Sunday afternoon with calm but overcast conditions for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday there is the potential for some light snow from a weak storm system. At this time, it is not certain that this system actually develops, so we'll have to wait and see. If snow does develop light accumulations will be possible which could cause travel impacts. We'll have to reassess this one later this weekend.

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Have a great weekend, and we'll reassess any upcoming snow potential on Sunday!

School Impact Outlook
Updated: Sunday February 24th
For February 25th through March 1st

Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (25) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Tuesday (26)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (27)
Very Low
Very Low
Thursday (28)
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (1)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!


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