Monday February 25

More snow likely Wednesday
School Forecast through:
Wednesday February 27th
Last Updated: 5:00PM Monday February 25, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

0%
(Nope)
30%
(Low)

5PM Monday

The wind is still kicking outside. So far the average sustained wind speed in Kingston has been 6 mph. The highest sustained windspeed has been 21 mph. And the highest wind gust has been 31 mph. Wallkill recorded a 49 mph wind gust early this morning while western New York has seen gusts up to 74 mph! Winds will persist, but will gradually subside this evening.

Attention now turns to our next snow event.

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Today, there has been increasing support for a quick snow event beginning Wednesday afternoon. A rather weak storm system will pass by quickly, but clip the region. This clipper seems poised to bring moderate impacts to the region. At this time, looking for light snow, mainly after 1PM Wednesday. Snow is likely during the evening and overnight hours before ending early Thursday morning before sunrise.

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General accumulations look to be in the 1 to 3 inch range, but could easily shift to the 2 to 4 inch range. Unlike many of our recent storms, this storm looks to be all snow - no sleet and no ice. Temperatures will generally be in the mid teens leading up to the snowfall and top out in the low 20s during the storm. This means that everything that falls will stick - once steady snow begins to fall, road conditions will begin to deteriorate relatively quickly depending on snowfall rates. Based on the current potential timing, early dismissals will eventually be likely across Ulster County on Wednesday, but we still have time for confidence to increase.

An update will be posted by 10AM tomorrow along with an update Tuesday night.

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11:30PM Sunday

The main weather factor early this week will be wind into Monday. The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning for all of eastern New York for sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph and gusts in excess of 50 mph. Across the Catskills, winds in the 20 to 40 mph range should certainly be expected throughout the day. However, because the winds will be from the west, areas between the mountain and the river (specifically from Highland to Saugerties) are likely to be somewhat sheltered. Maximum sustained winds in the Kingston area should remain toward the lower end of the 20 to 40 mph range, likely maxing out around 20-25 mph in the Kingston area. Higher wind gusts are likely. With the gusty winds there is the potential for downed branches and power outages. Peak winds should be Monday afternoon with diminishing winds into the evening. Any school impacts are likely to be highly localized depending on where potential power outages occur. It is possible that if there are outages, individual schools within school districts may be affected. This was the case after Tropical Storm Lee brought wind and flooding in 2011. During that storm Kingston City Schools operated on a 2 hour delay, but Anna Devine elementary was closed - likely due to power outage or inaccessibility from downed branches. Since 2004, the Kingston City School District as a whole has never closed, delayed, or dismissed early just for a wind event or power outages. Periods of sleet are possible overnight, but are not expected to amount to anything.

As far as snow this week, still a chance of snow mid-week snow. Trends this weekend have been for the best chance of snow to stay to our north with a relatively brief window for light snow accumulation Wednesday night. At this time, less than two inches of snow is possible Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

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10:30AM Friday

The upcoming week will feature generally calm conditions. The exceptions will be Sunday and possibly Wednesday.

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The weekend starts calm on Saturday. Saturday evening, a storm system will approach the region. Expecting this storm to arrive early Saturday night, likely after 7PM. There's a slight chance of some sleet at the onset, but no accumulation or impacts are expected at this time. Any sleet changes to all rain shortly after beginning. Rain continues Saturday night into Sunday morning. Storm ends by Sunday afternoon with calm but overcast conditions for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday there is the potential for some light snow from a weak storm system. At this time, it is not certain that this system actually develops, so we'll have to wait and see. If snow does develop light accumulations will be possible which could cause travel impacts. We'll have to reassess this one later this weekend.

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Have a great weekend, and we'll reassess any upcoming snow potential on Sunday!


School Impact Outlook
Updated: Sunday February 24th
For February 25th through March 1st

Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (25) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Tuesday (26)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (27)
Medium
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Thursday (28)
Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (1)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

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