Tuesday February 19

Storm to arrive tomorrow afternoon
School Forecast for:
Wednesday February 20th
Last Updated: 9:55PM Tuesday February 19, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

0%
(Nope)
40%
(Medium)

10PM Tuesday

No major changes since the morning update. Storm still slated to bring about two inches of snow changing to sleet then freezing rain/drizzle. The main trend today has been for a slightly earlier start time. It is becoming increasingly likely that the first snowflakes could approach Ulster County during the 12 o'clock hour, and overspread the county between 1PM and 3PM. The snow will begin from southwest to northeast, so areas out toward Ellenville will be affected first, and areas out toward Saugerties will be affected last. Kingston is much closer to saugerties than to Ellenville. At this time, KingstonSnows is now looking for the first snowflakes to begin during the 2 o'clock hour in Kingston.

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Outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

As noted as a possibility this morning, the advance in timing requires an increase in the early dismissal probabilities. An early dismissal is possible, but still remains less than likely. The main reason that an early dismissal is not explicitly favored is mainly because of snow intensity and temperatures. During some snow events temperatures are cold enough and snow starts heavy enough to result in an "instant" coating of accumulation. That will likely not be the case tomorrow. Air temperatures tomorrow are likely to be in the 30 to 32 degree range as the storm begins. This means that road temperatures will likely be slightly above freezing initially. Combined with light snow initially, it will likely take at least an hour to begin to see any road impacts - probably after 3PM. Again, an early dismissal for Kingston is possible, but just not likely. If there is no early dismissal, then after school activities are likely to be cancelled. Looking around the county, the best chances of early dismissals will be along the western edges from Livingston Manor and Margaretville to Ellenville and Pine Bush. Early dismissals are expected within this tier of districts.

A brief update will likely be posted tomorrow morning around 7AM.

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9:30AM Tuesday

Quick storm still slated for Wednesday night. A storm developing over the southern United States will balloon northward bringing precipitation to our region. Because the precipitation looks to be concentrated more toward Pennsylvania and New Jersey, this will be one of those storms where Long Island and New York City probably receive more snow than the Hudson Valley and Catskills.

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Locally, this really does not look to be a significant storm, but it will still have some impacts. Expecting snow to develop late Wednesday afternoon, likely around 4PM. Snow persists into the evening before changing to sleet. The change to sleet is likely to occur by about 10PM. Sleet should persist through the night, likely transitioning to a light freezing rain or freezing drizzle early Thursday morning. Everything is likely to end by about 7AM.

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As far as accumulations go, really only expecting about an inch or two mainly between 4PM and 10PM. After the change to sleet around 10PM, accumulations are likely to significantly level off because sleet does not accumulate as well as snow. However, slick conditions will persist through the night and into early Thursday. A light glaze of ice is likely - probably the kind that leaves a light coat of ice on cars and possibly on any cleared walkways. As far as schools go, cancellations are not an option due to the start time. If the storm trends a little faster toward more of a 1PM start time, then there is the potential for early dismissals. However, with the start time currently looking to be around 4PM, the most likely outcome is the cancellation of after school activities. Delays are likely Thursday… maaaybee cancellations depending on exact end times/ice amounts, but this is less than likely.

An update will be posted tonight by 10PM.

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7:00AM Monday

The zone of snow that we were watching last night has shifted to our north bringing snowfall to an end this morning. Residual moisture in the form of mist/drizzle/light snow showers will be possible throughout the day, but accumulations have ended. Kingston picked up 2.2 inches.

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Next snow shot: late Wednesday afternoon - Wednesday night; light accumulations possible before a change to sleet. Looking for snow to start around 4PM Wednesday and likely changeover to sleet by midnight. Sleet should progress to a mist/drizzle/freezing rain during the overnight hours before ending early Thursday morning. Likely look at less than 3 inches of accumulation. As far as potential school impacts, storm probably starts too late for cancellations. Early dismissals could be possible, but cancellations of after school activities seems most likely at this time.

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5:00PM Sunday

This week will feature an active weather pattern. The atmospheric highway that is the jet stream is set up in a way that will deliver us quick storms every 2 to 3 days this week. The first is tonight.

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Tonight, light snow develops around 10PM. Steady overnight, tapering off tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations generally in the 3 to 5 inch range. Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will allow for accumulation on roadways making President's Day very slick. The sun comes out on Tuesday.

Next storm starts Wednesday.

Currently looking for snow to begin Wednesday afternoon - at this time likely after 1PM. Probably closer to 4PM-ish. Snow is likely into the evening before transitioning to sleet Wednesday night. The storm is likely to end as drizzle / light freezing rain Thursday morning. There is the potential for light snow accumulations before the transition to sleet/ice. At least a glaze of ice is likely Wednesday night, and it is very possible that ice could be a much more significant factor than the snow for this storm. This combination will likely make for hazardous conditions for the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.

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Sun comes out for Friday. Saturday night/Sunday could feature another system, although at the moment, it looks like there could be more rain involved in that one.

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11:00AM Thursday

After a snowy week, conditions will finally calm down a little, but we're far from out of the woods of winter. There are two possible snow events that KingstonSnows is currently watching for next week: a light one on Monday, and a possibly more potent one for Wednesday/Thursday.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

This week will end with mild temperatures tomorrow. An approaching cold front will surge some warm air up the Valley on Friday allowing temperatures to reach the 40s. Light rain showers will be possible with the approaching front, mainly around mid-day Friday. The cold front slips through Friday night setting off a prolonged period of more seasonable temperatures. This weekend into next week, temperatures will generally reach the 30s during the afternoons and fall into the 20s during the overnights. The weekend remains dry with a decent amount of sunshine. Sunday night a weak disturbance will approach the region. This system could produce some light snow Monday morning. At this time, if there are any accumulations, they are likely to be less than 2 inches. Details will be posted this weekend. Skies likely clear Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Next potential system approaches from the south on Wednesday. It's too early for specific details on this system other than to note that there is the potential for accumulating snow.


School Impact Outlook
Updated: Sunday February 17th
For February 18th through February 22nd

Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (18) High
Very Low
Closed
Very Low
Tuesday (19)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (20)
High
Very Low
Low
Medium
Thursday (21)
Medium
Medium
Low
Very Low
Friday (22)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
181053 Visiting Snowflakes
Since January 2009
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