Quick storm Wednesday
School Forecast for:
Tuesday February 19th
Last Updated: 7:20AM Monday February 18, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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7:00AM Monday
The zone of snow that we were watching last night has shifted to our north bringing snowfall to an end this morning. Residual moisture in the form of mist/drizzle/light snow showers will be possible throughout the day, but accumulations have ended. Kingston picked up 2.2 inches.
Next snow shot: late Wednesday afternoon - Wednesday night; light accumulations possible before a change to sleet. Looking for snow to start around 4PM Wednesday and likely changeover to sleet by midnight. Sleet should progress to a mist/drizzle/freezing rain during the overnight hours before ending early Thursday morning. Likely look at less than 3 inches of accumulation. As far as potential school impacts, storm probably starts too late for cancellations. Early dismissals could be possible, but cancellations of after school activities seems most likely at this time.
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5:00PM Sunday
This week will feature an active weather pattern. The atmospheric highway that is the jet stream is set up in a way that will deliver us quick storms every 2 to 3 days this week. The first is tonight.
Tonight, light snow develops around 10PM. Steady overnight, tapering off tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations generally in the 3 to 5 inch range. Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will allow for accumulation on roadways making President's Day very slick. The sun comes out on Tuesday.
Next storm starts Wednesday.
Currently looking for snow to begin Wednesday afternoon - at this time likely after 1PM. Probably closer to 4PM-ish. Snow is likely into the evening before transitioning to sleet Wednesday night. The storm is likely to end as drizzle / light freezing rain Thursday morning. There is the potential for light snow accumulations before the transition to sleet/ice. At least a glaze of ice is likely Wednesday night, and it is very possible that ice could be a much more significant factor than the snow for this storm. This combination will likely make for hazardous conditions for the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.
Sun comes out for Friday. Saturday night/Sunday could feature another system, although at the moment, it looks like there could be more rain involved in that one.
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11:00AM Thursday
After a snowy week, conditions will finally calm down a little, but we're far from out of the woods of winter. There are two possible snow events that KingstonSnows is currently watching for next week: a light one on Monday, and a possibly more potent one for Wednesday/Thursday.
Click image for larger and clearer version.
This week will end with mild temperatures tomorrow. An approaching cold front will surge some warm air up the Valley on Friday allowing temperatures to reach the 40s. Light rain showers will be possible with the approaching front, mainly around mid-day Friday. The cold front slips through Friday night setting off a prolonged period of more seasonable temperatures. This weekend into next week, temperatures will generally reach the 30s during the afternoons and fall into the 20s during the overnights. The weekend remains dry with a decent amount of sunshine. Sunday night a weak disturbance will approach the region. This system could produce some light snow Monday morning. At this time, if there are any accumulations, they are likely to be less than 2 inches. Details will be posted this weekend. Skies likely clear Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Next potential system approaches from the south on Wednesday. It's too early for specific details on this system other than to note that there is the potential for accumulating snow.
School Impact Outlook
Updated: Sunday February 17th
For February 18th through February 22nd
Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (18) High
Very Low
Closed
Very Low
Tuesday (19)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (20)
High
Very Low
Low
Medium
Thursday (21)
Medium
Medium
Low
Very Low
Friday (22)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.
Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd
Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.
Click image for larger and clearer version.
Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!
-Ethan
KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
179428 Visiting Snowflakes
Since January 2009
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