Monday February 11

All systems go!

School Forecast for:
Tuesday February 12th
Last Updated: 9:30PM Monday February 11, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

70%
(High)
30%
(Low)

9:30PM Monday

Current radar revels that the storm is maturing to our west. The physical details remain unchanged from the last several days, and the bottomline remains the same: a significant winter storm will significantly impact travel beginning late Tuesday morning, and persisting through Wednesday morning.

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I want to focus on the school probabilities for tomorrow.
At this time, it seems most likely that snow will develop around or just after 10AM with a likely window between 9AM and 11AM. For perspective, our last major snowstorm from two weeks ago started at 8:30AM and resulted in county-wide closings. The City of Kingston has issued a Snow Emergency beginning at 7AM and the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm warning beginning at 10AM. However, with a potential start time after 10AM, it is possible that some school districts could squeeze in an early dismissal - namely, Kingston and or Saugerties. This has been the case with similar storms in the past - on February 8, 2013 a total of ten inches of snow fell between 8AM and 4AM that night. The 2013 early dismissal occurred in spite of a City Snow Emergency that had been declared and a Winter Storm Warning that had been declared by the National Weather Service beginning at 6AM. While the details of that snow event (temperature and snowfall rate) are not readily available, it is still enough to give pause in considering tomorrow's cancellation probabilities.

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As a subjective observation, in the last few years Kingston has taken a more cautious approach in making cancellation decisions, and it seems unlikely that the 2013 early dismissal would be repeated under the current administration. However, tomorrow's snow event is closer to the closing/early dismissal borderline than that storm or our last one. At this time, I do continue favor a cancellation as a proactive measure, but will not advance the probabilities because the early dismissal possibility certainly does exist - again, mainly for Kingston and Saugerties. The main reason for continuing to favor the cancellation is that conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly. Temperatures in the morning should be in the mid 20s, which should allow snow to begin coating roadways within about an hour of starting. During an early dismissal the last schools are not released until 11:15AM. It can take these students an additional hour to get home. Assuming the 10AM start time, there is the potential for a solid coating of snow by the time students are dismissed/they arrive home. Ellenville, Tri-Valley, Rondout, Pine Bush, and Marlboro have already closed in advance of the storm.

This will probably be the last update until tomorrow evening. Regardless of what happens with the schools (or your place of employment) be safe and enjoy the snow.
-Ethan

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8:00AM Monday

Our winter storm slated to begin tomorrow remains on track with no significant changes since Saturday. Expecting snow to develop Tuesday morning, likely by 10am. Several hours of pure snow are likely with snow continuing into the early afternoon. Snow changes to sleet/ice during the afternoon and evening. KingstonSnows is currently expecting a 4PM changeover, but the changeover could really occur anywhere between 1PM and 7PM - the sooner this changeover occurs, the lower our accumulations will be; if the changeover occurs later, accumulations will be higher. Sleet/ice continue Tuesday night the into the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Everything ends before sunrise Wednesday.

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It is important to note that this storm will essentially have two phases: the "snow phase" and the "sleet phase". Almost all accumulations will take place during the snow phase. At this time looking for about 4 to 6 inches of snow from Tuesday morning until the changeover Tuesday afternoon. Once the changeover occurs, the sleet phase will begin. At that time, accumulations will significantly level-off, but slick conditions will persist. Expecting about an inch or so of additional accumulation after the change to sleet. Total accumulations by Wednesday morning should be in the 4 to 8 inch range.

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As far as physical impacts, notable but not crippling travel impacts are likely throughout the day on Tuesday. Tuesday's temperatures will start off around 20, which will allow road conditions to deteriorate pretty quickly once snow begins. With snow likely developing between 7AM and 10AM, the morning commute will certainly be drivable, but conditions will progressively deteriorate. By late morning, expecting a solid coating of snow. A solid several inches will be on all surfaces by the afternoon. Once the changeover to sleet occurs, plows will have more success keeping roads clear of accumulation, but the sleet/ice that falls will keep roads very slick through the overnight. Temperatures rise to about 30 degrees early Wednesday morning, and the mid-30s as the morning progresses. This should help road conditions to improve after the storm ends.

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And looking at school impacts, our last major storm two weeks ago began around 8:30AM and resulted in county-wide cancellations. With a slightly later start time of possibly 10AM for tomorrow's storm, chances of a cancellation are slightly less than last time. However, even with the later starting time, because late morning road conditions are likely to quickly deteriorate, the proactive approach of cancelling classes still seems most likely at this time, but there is still the possibility of an early dismissal. While closings are more than likely across the county, the best chances will be out toward Ellenville where snow will arrive first. A reassessment will be posted around 9PM.

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9:00AM Saturday

Winter Storm will impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday; the brunt of the storm will be Tuesday. The trigger for our next storm is currently on the West Coast bringing widespread winter weather. Over the next three days, this storm will sweep down through the western US. In doing so, it will pass close enough to the Gulf of Mexico to scoop up plenty of moisture. As it does, a high pressure located to our east near Maine will preset the stage with cold air over our region. The storm will shovel its moisture into our region where it will clash with the cold air resulting in snow from New Jersey and Pennsylvania northward. Ultimately in the clash, there may be enough warm moist air from the south to erode the cold norther air, which may lead to a changeover from snow to sleet in many areas, rain can not be completely ruled out toward the end. The speed at which any changeover occurs will be the primary factor in determining exact snowfall amounts.

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Here's the timeline of what KingstonSnows is currently expecting: Early Tuesday Morning (6AM - 10AM) snow begins. Start temperatures will be in the low 20s allowing for road impacts. Snow through Tuesday afternoon with temperatures rising to the mid-upper 20s. Tuesday afternoon (1PM - 7PM), snow mixing with and possibly changing over to sleet. Most, accumulation occurs before any changeover. Sleet/snow persist through about 12AM Wednesday, before tapering off late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

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The likely range is becoming more focused on the 5 to 10 inch range. However, due to the potential mixing, the extreme range remains relatively broad. How do we get to the extremes? If the transport of warm moist air from the south is stronger than currently expected and the cold air fails to remain locked in place, then this could lead to a faster change to sleet and an eventual change to rain. This would result in lower totals. However, if the cold air remains thicker and more resilient against the infusion of air from the south, a longer period of snow will be possible. Extremes aside, the bottomline for this storms remains that it is very likely that winter weather will significantly impact travel throughout the day on Tuesday. Impacts may linger into Wednesday morning.

School Impact Outlook
Updated: Saturday February 9th
For February 11th through February 15th

Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (11) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (12)
High Very Low
High
Low
Wednesday (13)
Medium
Medium
Medium
Very Low
Thursday (14)
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (15)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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