Saturday February 9

Storm Still on For Tuesday

School Forecast for:
Monday February 11th
Last Updated: 9:00AM Saturday February 9, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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(Nope)

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9:00AM Saturday

Winter Storm will impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday; the brunt of the storm will be Tuesday. The trigger for our next storm is currently on the West Coast bringing widespread winter weather. Over the next three days, this storm will sweep down through the western US. In doing so, it will pass close enough to the Gulf of Mexico to scoop up plenty of moisture. As it does, a high pressure located to our east near Maine will preset the stage with cold air over our region. The storm will shovel its moisture into our region where it will clash with the cold air resulting in snow from New Jersey and Pennsylvania northward. Ultimately in the clash, there may be enough warm moist air from the south to erode the cold norther air, which may lead to a changeover from snow to sleet in many areas, rain can not be completely ruled out toward the end. The speed at which any changeover occurs will be the primary factor in determining exact snowfall amounts.

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Here's the timeline of what KingstonSnows is currently expecting: Early Tuesday Morning (6AM - 10AM) snow begins. Start temperatures will be in the low 20s allowing for road impacts. Snow through Tuesday afternoon with temperatures rising to the mid-upper 20s. Tuesday afternoon (1PM - 7PM), snow mixing with and possibly changing over to sleet. Most, accumulation occurs before any changeover. Sleet/snow persist through about 12AM Wednesday, before tapering off late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

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The likely range is becoming more focused on the 5 to 10 inch range. However, due to the potential mixing, the extreme range remains relatively broad. How do we get to the extremes? If the transport of warm moist air from the south is stronger than currently expected and the cold air fails to remain locked in place, then this could lead to a faster change to sleet and an eventual change to rain. This would result in lower totals. However, if the cold air remains thicker and more resilient against the infusion of air from the south, a longer period of snow will be possible. Extremes aside, the bottomline for this storms remains that it is very likely that winter weather will significantly impact travel throughout the day on Tuesday. Impacts may linger into Wednesday morning.

School Impact Outlook
Updated: Saturday February 9th
For February 11th through February 15th

Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (11) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (12)
High Very Low
High
Low
Wednesday (13)
Medium
Medium
Medium
Very Low
Thursday (14)
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (15)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY

Since January 2009
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