Sunday March 3

Snow overnight
School Forecast for:
Monday March 4th
Last Updated: 8:40PM Sunday March 3, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
(Medium) 40%

8:30PM Sunday

Really, no significant updates regarding the storm details this evening. Today's temperatures maxed out at 40 degrees at an official weather station in Red Hook and 43 at an unofficial one in Kingston. Snow began just before 6PM, and is now falling steadily. Kingston's temperature fell to 32 degrees by 7PM and has been steady since then. Snow should continue steadily overnight accumulating 3 to 5 inches. Still unable to pin down a more specific end time other than 3AM to 7AM, and this will make a big difference when it comes to school impacts tomorrow. A storm continuing through 7AM is much more likely to result in cancellations than a storm ending at 3AM. This being said, there are subtle hints suggesting an earlier end time - around 3AM or 4AM. These hints include some of the higher resolution computer model simulations that update once an hour as well as current radar. While a clean-cut edge does not currently exist on the back side of the storm, the overall motion on radar is that of a somewhat progressive storm - meaning it's looking like an earlier end time rather than a later one. This, combined with the continued concern that temperatures limited to the 30-32 degree range will limit significant road impacts, may be enough to tip the scales toward a delay. For these reasons the current probabilities have been adjusted to favor a delay tomorrow morning despite the potential for several inches of accumulation.

The greatest impacts across Ulster County will be toward the south and east (out toward Wallkill/Marlboro and the Poughkeepsie area). The least impacts will be to the north and west around the Catskills (toward Onteora and Livingston Manor).

9AM Sunday

Periods of sunshine this morning will allow temperatures rise to near 40 this afternoon. Clouds will increase throughout the day as a storm system approaches. Expecting precipitation to develop between 5PM and 7PM. There is about a two hour window for light rain/snow mix at the onset before a complete changeover to snow. Steady snow is expected through about 3AM before ending between 3AM and 7AM. Total accumulations of around 3 or 4 inches are currently expected in the Kingston area. Accumulations are likely to be about the same across the mid-Hudson Valley with slightly higher amounts toward Orange County.


As far as impacts, temperatures will be a significant factor in this storm. Right off the bat, roads will be warm from this afternoon's temperatures pushing 40 degrees. While temperatures are likely to cool enough to allow snow by 7PM, roads will take longer to cool. It is likely that many roads, will not begin to experience any snow sticking until about 10PM-12AM. Slick roads will persist overnight, but with temperatures likely only falling to around 30 degrees the main roads in and around town may remain more wet than white if accumulations remain on the low-end. While the concern of temperatures limiting school impacts to delays is legitimate, at this time KingstonSnows will slightly favor a cancellation. The reason for this is that even with temperatures only getting down to around 30 degrees, slick conditions are expected to develop. Any accumulations greater than the very low-end should result in snow accumulating on roadways. This combined with the projected end time likely being right around 5AM will likely allow road impacts to linger into the mid-morning as temperatures likely won't rise above freezing until 7AM or 8AM.

The most comparable school impact in recent years seems to be January 24, 2017. During that storm, 1.7 inches of sleet (ice pellets) fell between about 5PM and 5AM. Temperatures leading up to the storm were initially in the 37 to 39 degree range, but ultimately fell to the 30 to 32 degree range before rising above freezing around 8AM. The storm resulted school cancellations.

A reassessment will be posted this evening.

6:30PM Saturday

Trends today have continued to support lower snow totals. Even still, there remains a considerable amount of uncertainty given that the storm is only about 24 hours away. Combined with the higher totals that had been suggested up until last night, this is resulting in a lower than normal amount of confidence in the affects of this storm.


It does appear likely that Kingston will see at least an inch of snow. In the past two days, an inch is the lowest possibility that has been suggested by any computer model calculation. Two of today's 14 calculations resulted in about an inch. At the high-end, today's calculations maxed out at 6 to 7 inches with four of the 14 suggesting this. The likely range for this update has been decreased to 2 to 6 inches, and the specific forecast for Kingston favors the lower end of this range at 3 inches.


Obviously there is a palpable difference between 2 inches and 6 inches, however, due to the timing and the temperatures the impacts may not be as drastic as one might expect. Timing has been very consistent with snow developing by about 7PM, and tapering off around or shortly before sunrise Monday. Tomorrow's temperatures will likely reach the mid-30s. Sunday night temperatures will likely only fall to the 27 to 31 degree range. While this is cold enough to support all snow, it is fairly warm for a winter storm and will likely limit road impacts. Snow is not likely to stick to roads right away and roads may not become snow covered until perhaps 8PM or 9PM Sunday. Late tomorrow night, slick conditions are likely to develop. If accumulations remain on the lower end, then roads may be more slick than treacherous Monday morning. If we do reach the higher end of accumulations, Monday morning roads would likely be hazardous, but the relatively warm temperatures should promote a decent clearing of roadways throughout the morning. In either case, the main travel impacts will be Monday morning with either slick or hazardous road conditions.

9AM Saturday

While I would like to say that confidence in tomorrow's winter storm has increased, I can not. So far with this storm, I have focused a lot on how the storm is expected to unfold. One of the things that I have neglected to focus on is the range of possibilities that exist for the storm.

Typically, my forecasts rely on a blend of five or six computer models that make multiple calculations each day. Different models have different biases. Far in advance it is common for the different models to offer different weather outcomes. However, as a storm gets closer the models typically converge on a single outcome. When they don't converge nicely human critique becomes super important. Up until last night, four of five computer models seemed to be converging on a heavy snowfall event (6 to 10 inches). However, a fifth model consistently calculated far lower totals of 0 to 4 inches. Due to the convergence of the other models on the higher scenario, the low model was considered an outlier and was disregarded for last night's update. Had it been included in my normal blend of calculations that goes into making the snow gauge, the forecast ranges would have been unusually large.


Overnight however, all of the models that had previously been suggesting heavy snowfall have trended considerably lighter. In fact, three of those models currently are producing calculations that align with the "outlier" model that had been calculating 0 to 4 inches. The other two models continue to suggest a moderate snowfall of 6 or 7 inches. The differences in accumulation are mainly the result of how close to the coast the storm is expected to pass. If the storm moves closer to shore, accumulations will be greater. If it passes further out to sea, accumulations will be lighter. This all being said, confidence for a heavy snowfall has decreased somewhat overnight. For this update, I have included calculations from all forecast models and have used my normal blend. Because I would like to see some consistency in the overnight trends, the latest forecast is weighted toward the previous one by about one inch.


For the latest snow gauge above, I have left in the raw computer model calculations that go into making the snow gauge. Each of the little shapes represents a different computer model and each color represents a different time. I have done this to pull back the curtain a bit on the wide range of data going into the current forecast, and to illustrate the increased support for a lighter snowfall than existed with last night's forecast. An update will be posted by 7PM today.

5PM Friday

We'll likely see another round of snow Saturday morning before a more significant storm moves through late this weekend. For Saturday, expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow between about 3am and 10am. This will result in slick roads for the morning. Clouds linger on Saturday and attention quickly turns to major storm on Sunday.


For Sunday, expecting it to be dry for the first half of the day. Snow is likely to develop between 3PM and 7PM. Expecting about a 12 hour period of steady snow with snow likely ending between 4am and 10am Monday. Total accumulations generally look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range. Travel Sunday evening through Monday morning is likely to be significantly impacted.

Next Update:
Saturday Morning

3:00PM Thursday

March starts tomorrow! In some years Kingston sees a quick early March transition to spring, while in other years winter lingers into April. For this winter, don't expect a quick transition to spring anytime soon because this week looks very wintery.


Friday and Saturday
We'll will have two shots at light snow Friday and Saturday. The first shot is Friday morning. Just a very slight chance of light snow. If snow does materialize it is most likely to be between 6am and 9am. Any snow is expected to be too short in duration and probably too light in intensity to result in any last minute school impacts - I only mention it so you're not completely surprised if flakes begin to fall as you're preparing to leave the house. Zero accumulation to a dusting is possible. Another round of light snow is possible early Saturday morning. Any accumulations are likely to be less than two inches, mainly between about 1AM Saturday and 8AM Saturday.


Sunday/Monday nor'easter
Things get real on Sunday. Sunday we are likely to experience our first true nor'easter of the season. This storm should move up the coast with a large swath of snow. Impacts are likely to be very similar to our two large storms earlier this winter. At this time, KingstonSnows is expecting snow to develop Sunday afternoon and end Monday morning. A general 4 to 9 inches seems likely in Kingston at this time with an extreme range of 2 to 11 inches. Timing and accumulation details will be refined as we approach the weekend. For this storm, snow totals will likely be highest to our south with 6 to 12 inches possible between Ulster County and NYC. Lower storm totals of 2 to 6 inches are likely between Ulster County and the Albany Capitol District.


Behind the storm, dry but cold weather will filter in for the rest of the week. Highs for the remainder of the week will be in the 20s. Overnight lows will fall to the low teens. The cold should peak next Thursday morning with temperatures possibly in the single digits.

Next Update:
On Friday

School Impact Outlook
Updated: Wednesday February 27th
For March 4th through March 8th

Day (Date) Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (4) High
Very Low
Tuesday (5)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (6)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Thursday (7)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (8)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.


Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed storm to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!


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