Wednesday January 30

Cold, but calm.

School Forecast for:
Thursday January 31st
Last Updated: 5:45PM Wednesday January 30, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
60%
(Medium)

10%
(Low)
0%
(Nope)

5:45PM Wednesday

The arctic cold front that produced our intense snow squall this afternoon will usher in bitterly cold temperatures overnight. The temperature in Kingston is currently 14 degrees and has fallen about 10 degrees the past two hours. It will continue to fall through the night. Tomorrow morning, looking for temperatures to bottom out just below zero degrees. A light wind will make it feel well below zero through the morning. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will struggle to reach the teens on Thursday. We'll endure another chilly day on Friday with temperatures again dipping down near zero in the morning, but a warming trend will begin. This trend will persist through early next week when our next storm system will approach. At this time, expecting dry weather through at least Sunday. Rain showers will be possible early next week. At this time, KingstonSnows is not monitoring any prominent snow threats through the end of next week.

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Regarding schools for tomorrow…
Kingston historically has not delayed classes purely for cold temperatures in at least the past 15 years - like last week, most of Kingston's cold episodes have coincided with slick road conditions. The last time that Kingston delayed classes for mainly cold-related conditions was January 7, 2014. On that day, the National Weather Service had issued a Wind Chill Advisory for potential wind chills of -15 to -25 degrees, however, 0.2 inches of snow also fell between 11PM and 12AM resulting in black ice - it is unclear how much of the decision was based on ice vs cold. New Paltz is the only local school district with a public policy for cold cancellation criteria, and it states that if the windchill is forecast to be at least -25 degrees at 5AM, classes will be delayed. Because, other districts such as Marlboro, Ellenville, and Rondout have shown more willingness to close due to cold temperatures, it generally has seemed like Kingston has followed a similar policy as New Paltz.

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All that being said, roads in Kingston are already slick due to the snow squall and residual snow from the other day. While some improvement can be expected due to evening traffic, black ice and slick conditions are still likely overnight due to the already frigid temperatures. This combined with a Wind Chill Advisory issued by the National Weather Service that is in effect until 1PM Thursday for wind chills of -15 to -25, could be enough to result in a delay. Additionally, the City of Kingston's snow emergency remains in effect until 12PM Thursday so the city can continue to clear roadways. Generally speaking, conditions tonight are slightly less favorable than last Tuesday when temperatures fell to zero with snow literally still caked on roads, but appear to be very similar to the January 7, 2014 delay. For these reasons a delay appears slightly more likely than not for tomorrow. Delays will be most likely out toward the Catskills where a Wind Chill Warning is in effect for temperatures potentially as low as -35 degrees. It'll be interesting to see what happens, because as previously states Kingston doesn't have much of a history with extreme cold on school days.

No matter what happens, be sure to dress in layers and bundle up warmly tomorrow!


School Impact Probability
Updated: Sunday January 27, 2019
For January 28th through February 1st

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (28) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (29)
High
Very Low
Very Low
Medium
Wednesday (30)
Medium
Medium
Low
Very Low
Thursday (31)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (1)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.
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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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Since January 2009
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