Tuesday January 29

Snow ending soon

School Forecast for:
Wednesday January 30th
Last Updated: 10:00PM Tuesday January 29, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal


Today's storm has dropped about 9 inches of snow. Earlier today, the likely range was raised to 7 inches due to snow beginning as early as was possible and temperatures running a few degrees below projected. Here in Kingston, what really put accumulations over the top has been very heavy snowfall within the last few hours. Between 7PM and 9PM alone, 4 inches of snow fell! This enhancement has been due to extra lifting of the atmosphere from the very strong cold front that is preparing to move through. Simply put, much like a plow flings snow in an upward motion when it barrels through, cold fronts also propel the air ahead of them in an upward motion. More upward motion, allows more moisture to develop in the clouds, and allows for heavier precipitation rates. The magnitude of this effect was underestimated leading up to the storm. In any case, current radar suggests that snow should end around 11PM. This is supported by webcams that currently show snow is ending over the Catskills. Tomorrow afternoon, a second cold front will move through during the afternoon. This cold front will usher in arctic air that will send out temperatures plummeting from the 20s Wednesday afternoon to near zero Thursday morning. Although the air associated with this second front will be much drier, it is possible that tomorrow afternoon we could see a brief pulse of snow between about 1PM and 4PM. This may present as a quick moving snow squall that sweeps through the region likely lasting less than two hours when it does. Less than an inch of snow is likely with this feature. While it isn't 100% that it will actually form, it is certainly something to note.

Amount Date End time

9.5 in. Dec. 13, 2007 7PM Delay
9.2 in. Feb. 5, 2014 10PM Cancellation
10.5 in. Feb. 2, 2015 3PM Delay
9.8 in. Feb. 9, 2017 2PM Cancellation
10.5 in. Mar. 7, 2018 8PM Delay
9 to 10 Jan. 29, 2018 11PM ???
Looking back over the years, two-day storms of similar magnitude have yielded mixed delay/cancellation results. All things, considered will slightly favor another cancellation for tomorrow. The reason for favoring this cancellation is:

1) the significant snow that has fallen in the last three hours, negating any possible road cleaning progress throughout the day.
2) Kingston's snow emergency will be in effect through the morning with cars parked on the road needing to be moved to the "even side" by 7AM so snow removal can continue.
3) Today's snow was very light and powdery - when driven on, this type of snow tends to "cake" on to roadways making it more difficult to clear than wetter snow.
4) While not 100% certain, the threat of a possible snow squall or snow showers tomorrow afternoon could compromise roads if they are not totally clear.

We'll see what happens.
In either case enjoy the snow and be safe!

School Impact Probability
Updated: Sunday January 27, 2019
For January 28th through February 1st

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (28) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (29)
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (30)
Very Low
Thursday (31)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (1)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.


Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!


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