Monday January 28

Snow likely tomorrow

School Forecast for:
Tuesday January 29th
Last Updated: 9:30AM Monday January 28, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

0%
(Nope)
60%
(Medium)

9:30AM Monday

Snow event for tomorrow looks to be on track. Expecting a relatively quick moving storm system to deliver several inches of snow throughout the day on Tuesday. In last night's update uncertainty regarding the start time was mentioned, however, overnight trends have been consolidating around an earlier start time, which appears to be supported by this morning's radar which currently depicts the storm over Indiana. Currently, looking for light snow to develop any time after about 8AM Tuesday. Chances of snow will increase throughout the morning, with snow becoming likely by late morning. Steady snow is likely throughout the afternoon and into Tuesday evening. While the day will start with temperatures in the 20s, the day does not look to be exceptionally chilly as temperatures rise to near freezing during the afternoon and evening. While some sleet mixing in still can't be ruled out, at this point a mainly snow event is expected. Snow is likely to taper off around midnight.

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Based on the current forecast and the forecast trends, the Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes are likely to be impacted. A light coating of snow is likely by late morning, with the heaviest snow likely falling between 4PM and 7PM. At this time, early dismissals are likely across Ulster County on Tuesday.

Next Update:
By 7PM Tonight


5PM Sunday

The main features of this coming week continue to be a potential snow event Tuesday into Tuesday night, and intense cold to follow. This evening, confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow on Tuesday. Still some uncertainty in the exact start time. There is a slight chance of snow starting after 7AM, but snow will be more likely after 1PM. For now, will favor light snow beginning around mid-day, gradually increasing in intensity through the afternoon. Temperatures are likely to start off around 20 on Tuesday and gradually warm. Snow may changeover to sleet for a period in the evening. Still some concern about potentially changing over to a period of pure rain or ice for a time as temperatures approach the freezing mark Tuesday night. However, the trend today has been for slightly cooler maximum temperatures, perhaps in the 31-33 degree range, which decreases the risk for a full changeover to rain. Because of this, the potential accumulation amounts are greater than they were early this morning. Will still need to monitor. Snow is likely to end before sunrise Wednesday, likely in the 12AM to 4AM timeframe.

Very cold air still looks to filter in behind the storm. Temperatures are likely to fall into the teens Wednesday morning, which could lead to black ice on any roadways that see melting snow during the night. Temperatures barely reach 20 Wednesday afternoon before plummeting to near zero Wednesday night. Maximum temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach the teens, and Thursday's high temperatures may be the coldest on record for January 31st.

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Next Update:
Monday Morning

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3AM Sunday

The coming week will feature generally calm weather conditions. The exception to this will be a storm passing through Tuesday into Wednesday. A dose of very cold air will follow the storm.

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Today a dry cold front will pass through the region. This front is resulting in clouds, and we could see some flurries or snow showers around mid-day. Tonight, temperatures fall to the lower teens. Skies clear on Monday behind the cold front, but temperatures will be noticeably cooler only reaching the mid-20s. On Tuesday, a stronger storm system will move through the region. This storm system is likely to bring a light snow transitioning to sleet or rain. At this time, it looks like Tuesday starts dry with temperatures in the 20s. Light snow is likely to develop during the afternoon with an inch or two of accumulation possible through the evening. Snow may mix with sleet as the evening progresses. Temperatures are likely to peak in the mid-30s around midnight as a steadier precipitation moves in. Temperatures around this time will be critical, and it is possible that we changeover to plain rain late Tuesday night. Rain or sleet may briefly change back to snow as a strong cold front moves through early Wednesday dropping temperatures back to near 20. Everything ends before sunrise Wednesday. If a changeover to rain or sleet occurs, accumulations will be limited to just a couple inches, however, a more moderate snowfall will be possible if temperatures remain near or below freezing Tuesday night. In addition to possible snow and sleet accumulations, flash freezing will be a notable concern Wednesday morning. Black ice may form as temperatures rapidly fall below freezing.

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The second half of the week remains dry and generally clear. As the storm departs Wednesday morning, very cold air will roll through the region. Temperatures Wednesday are likely to reach the low 20s, and then plummet to near zero Wednesday night. Thursday's temperatures barely make the teens before gradually moderating to the low 20s Friday and Saturday.

Next Update:
Sunday Morning


School Impact Probability
Updated: Saturday January 26, 2019
For January 28th through February 1st

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (28) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (29)
Medium
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Wednesday (30)
Low
Medium
Low
Very Low
Thursday (31)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (1)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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Since January 2009
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