Wednesday January 23

Slight chance ice Today

School Forecast for:
Wednesday January 23rd
Last Updated: 12:30PM Wednesday January 23, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal


12:30PM Wednesday

Just a brief update to say that everything from this morning remains valid. Temperatures are currently 28 - 30 degrees and remain on track. Based on latest radar, precipitation also remains on track.


Early dismissals are in place toward the Catskills where precipitation will start slightly earlier and temperatures are slightly cooler. Kingston has cancelled all after school activities.


5:30AM Wednesday

Quick update on today's ice threat.
Currently it's 19 degrees in High Falls (south of Kingston), 22 in Red Hook (east of Kingston), and about 17 degrees in Kingston. Latest computer models suggest that air temperatures should gradually rise to the freezing mark between 1PM and 7PM. Given that there is snow on the ground and even on some roads, I'm more inclined to expect some road temperatures to take a little longer to warm to freezing, and I don't expect this to happen until after 4PM. After about 7PM a warm front will begin to move through and that will increase our temperature through the night and it is possible that air temperatures could push the upper 40s Thursday morning.


As far as precipitation goes, there is definitely scattered showers around the region. Latest radar depicts a small batch of showers around the Binghamton area (purple circle), and a second main batch over western New York (blue circle). At face value on radar, it looks like the Binghamton batch could result in some light freezing rain later this morning, however, current webcams from that part of NY suggest that the showers are only reaching the ground north of Binghamton (yellow dashed line). As the batch of precipitation approaches us, this suggests that the showers associated with it should stay north of the Kingston/Saugerties area. The second batch will approach early this afternoon, and we'll see an increasing threat of spotty/light freezing rain. This will primarily be after 1PM, and the greatest threat is likely to be between about 4PM and 7PM. Overnight and into tomorrow morning, pure rain is still expected - still looking for close to an inch. Expect patchy dense fog early tomorrow morning. Thursday's temperatures peak in the mid to upper 40s around 10AM, and then gradually fall to freezing throughout the day.

All things considered, measurable ice accumulation is not anticipated, but black ice from light freezing rain is certainly possible later today, especially after 1PM. Due to the timing and light/spotty nature of any precipitation, it isn't likely that schools will dismiss early, but it can't be completely ruled out. In either case, be alert when driving, especially on side/back roads.

8PM Tuesday

Another storm system will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday. This storm system will be warmer than our previous ones and an extended period of pure rain is expected.

Temperatures are currently in the mid-teens. Overnight they should hold steady, but as clouds begin to increase temperatures should rise to the low-20s as we head toward morning. Temperatures are likely to approach the upper-20s around noon. After about 1PM, light spotty rain or freezing rain showers will be possible ahead of a warm front. Temperatures will be right around freezing at this time, so there will be the potential for a light glaze of ice on surfaces. At this time, very little ice is expected, but it doesn't take much to have an impact, especially with some roads remaining compromised from Sunday's storm. The ice threat will continue through about 7PM. After 7PM, temperatures should be above freezing, and a steady rain is expected during the overnight hours. About an inch of rain is likely. Temperatures will continue to rise Wednesday night and could approach the mid-40s by Thursday morning. Rain is likely to taper off late Thursday morning. And temperatures should gradually fall through the afternoon. Friday - temperatures in the 20s, with flurries possible. Saturday clear with temperatures in the teens to 20s.

A reassessment of tomorrow's ice threat will be posted in the morning.

School Impact Probability
Updated: January 16, 2019
For January 21st through 25th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (21) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (22)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (23)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (24)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (25)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.


Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!


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