Monday January 21

Very Cold Tonight

School Forecast for:
Tuesday January 22nd
Last Updated: 7:00PM Sunday January 21, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
60%
(Medium)

0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

7PM Monday

Last night, temperatures in the kingston area fell to -2 degrees. Today we only warmed to 11. Tonight, overnight temperatures are likely to fall to significantly, and we could approach -10 by Tuesday morning! The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Chill Advisory until 7AM Tuesday. A wind chill advisory means that the combination of cold air and the wind can lead frostbite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Roads around Kingston remain slick from Sunday's storm. Improvement is not expected overnight, and if anything roads may become more slick overnight as potential slush from today's traffic refreezes.

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Based on road conditions and the extreme cold, there is certainly the potential for a delay on Tuesday. In either case, it will continue to be slick tomorrow morning. Several Ulster and Dutchess County schools have already issued delays for tomorrow.


5PM Sunday

Kingston picked up a grand total of 7.4 inches of snow and sleet today. This brings our season total up to 19 inches. Looking ahead, the general weather pattern is likely to feature a lobe of below average temperatures over our area for this next two weeks. Generally, speaking winter storms draw their energy from temperature gradients between warm and cold air. The temperature gradient between this lobe sagging out of Canada and warmer air to our south is likely to act as a pathway for several small storm systems to zip across our region during the next two weeks.

The cold air that will allow this pattern to evolve will arrive tonight. It will be cold for the next two days. Temperatures have already fallen about 5 degrees from this morning's high of 28. Temperatures will continue to plummet to near zero degrees tonight. On Monday, temperatures will likely struggle to reach even 10 degrees, before dipping to around zero again Monday night. Temperatures will moderate some Tuesday into Wednesday. On Wednesday, our next system approaches. This one does not look to be anywhere near as potent as the one we just had. The storm is likely to start as a brief period of sleet or snow showers Wednesday afternoon, which is likely to changeover to rain showers as temperatures look to reach the upper 30s for most of this storm. Although rain showers are currently anticipated, will have to watch ground-level temperatures as we get closer any potential freezing on the ground - won't really be able to assess this until Monday or Tuesday. In either case, rain is likely Wednesday night, with maybe a brief transition to snow showers as the storm tapers off Thursday morning. There's the potential for up to an inch of rain, and maybe an inch or two of snow at this time. The storm clears into Friday with temperatures in the teens and 20s. On Saturday a new cold front is likely to move through bringing a chance of snow showers and a new shot of cold air.

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Image source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/

I have to get to work, so I don't have time to add any pretty graphics at the moment, but I'll leave you all with this one. Every time we have a cold spell or a big snow storm, someone always says "so much for global warming" or something like that. This chart is of todays temperatures across the globe and is a reminder that what any given part of the planet is experiencing at any given time is not necessarily representative of the globe as a whole. Right now, eastern America is the only part of the world that is below average. Much of the rest of the world is baking, including Australia where a record-breaking heatwave has been making headlines: »Link« Visit NASA for information on how the world has been warming over the long-term »Link«

Enjoy the snow and Martin Luther King Jr. Day!


School Impact Probability
Updated: January 16, 2019
For January 21st through 25th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (21) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (22)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (23)
Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (24)
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (25)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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Since January 2009
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