Saturday January 19

Here we go!

School Forecast for:
Tuesday January 22nd
Last Updated: 8:00AM Saturday January 19, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

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(Nope)
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(Nope)

8AM Saturday

Quick morning update.
Our storm remains set to begin later today. Looking for snow to start between 4PM and 6PM. Snow should gradually increase in intensity through the evening. Between 12AM and 5AM, snow is likely to fall heavily with snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour likely. After about 5AM, snow is expected to begin a transition to sleet. Once this transition occurs, the rate of accumulation will decrease significantly, however, this does not mean conditions will improve. Sleet has just as much road impact as snow does, especially when it falls heavily. Sleet, possibly mixed with snow, is likely to continue through the morning. Have adjusted forecast amounts slightly to reflect a longer period of sleet than last night.

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Next potential storm will be Wednesday into Thursday. At the moment, this storm looks less wintery than our current one with rain possibly being a factor along with some snow. A full update will be posted tomorrow afternoon focusing on next week.

Next Update:
By 7PM Tonight

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6PM Friday

The stage is set for what may be our largest storm of the winter. Current radar reveals that the storm has already formed to the west of Chicago. Over the next 24 hours the storm will move eastward toward New York. In the process it will absorb a significant amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. To the north, is a deep pool of frigid arctic air. Some Canadian cities that are in this pool of arctic air are currently reporting temperatures of -20F to -30F degrees. This air is locked in place, and will help to ensure that we stay mainly snow during the storm. This frigid air will also spill in behind the storm giving us our coldest temperatures of the season.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

At this point, expecting snow to develop after 4PM Saturday. There could be a coating to an inch by 7PM. Looking for about 1 to 3 inches by 10PM. After 10PM, snowfall intensities will increase significantly. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are very likely Saturday night, which is comparable to our November storm. We are likely to approach double digits around 4AM. Expect snow and sleet continue through early Sunday morning, before winding down late in the morning. The storm should taper off by about noon. Looking for a likely range of 10 to 16 inches. The "extreme range" for this storm is 9 to 19 inches. Oh, remember that frigid arctic air? Yeah… that'll quickly filter in behind the storm. Looking for temperatures to drop to near zero Sunday night. Monday only warms to the single digits.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

The main uncertainty in this storm is from 4AM to 10AM Sunday. This is when we are most likely to mix with sleet. Sleet does not accumulate as well as snow, so the more sleet the lower our totals will be. The current likely range of 10 to 16 inches assumes that we mix with at least some sleet. The reason that some sleet is being forecast is because of all the air being pulled up from the south. This warmer air is likely to be drawn into part of the storm, warming the air far above the ground enough to prevent all snow. That being said, if we remain 100% snow, we could see the 16+ inch totals suggested at the extreme high end of the forecast range. Conversely, if more sleet than anticipated mixes in, then the totals of less than 10 inches at the lower extreme end are possible.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Next Update:
Saturday Morning

School Impact Probability
Updated: January 16, 2019
For January 21st through 25th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (21) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (22)
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (23)
Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (24)
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (25)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
Since January 2009
Archive of Updates

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