Thursday January 17

Major Weekend Storm

School Forecast for:
Friday January 18th
Last Updated: 8:00PM Thursday January 17, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
40%
(Medium)

0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

8PM Thursday

Light snow is expected tonight between 12AM and 5AM. This event has actually trended lighter today and we could be looking at just a dusting to half an inch. Temperatures look to hold in the 22 - 25 degree range for the duration of this event, which is cold enough to allow any snow that falls to linger on roadways. Given that last week's delay resulted from 0.2 inches of snow between about 1am and 4am with temperatures of 25/26 degrees, am tempted to continue to slightly favor a delay. However, the current radar is rather unimpressive and the air is currently very dry - much drier than last week. This raises concerns about snow either falling too lightly or being to short in duration to allow for little more than a dusting. Light snow and road impacts are still possible, but tonight's not a night I would bet my homework on a delay.

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As far as the weekend storm,
confidence is increasing. Computer models have been coming into better agreement with all depicting a mainly snow event with a couple hours of sleet mixed in. At this point, after 4PM Saturday, snow is expected to develop. By 7PM, there could be an inch or so of accumulation. Between 7PM and 1AM, snow is likely to fall VERY heavily. Much like we saw with November's storm, snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour could be nearly continuous during this time. This will make travel very dangerous to impossible. Accumulations of 6 to 8 inches is likely by 1AM. Precipitation is likely to continue heavily through about 7AM. 1AM to 7AM is currently the most uncertain part of the forecast because this is when some sleet may mix in. An additional 2 to 6 inches of accumulation is possible, depending on how much sleet mixes with the snow. Totals are likely to be in the 8 to 14 inch range by 7AM. Any sleet is likely to change back over to snow after 7AM, and snow is likely to taper off by mid-day.

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These times and amounts may shift as we draw closer, but at this time it is currently the most likely way that the storm will unfold, and there is a moderate amount of confidence behind it. Regardless of exact details, a substantial amount of snow is expected. Due to very heavy snowfall rates expected Saturday night, travel is not recommended after 7PM Saturday. If you must travel Saturday night, please take the time now to make an emergency kit. Information on what to include in your car's emergency kit can be found here: https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-before At the very least be sure to include a full tank of gas, warm clothing/blankets, and a fully charged cell phone.

Next Update:
Friday Morning

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8AM Thursday

This short update will only focus on the major weekend storm. For the past several days we have been waiting to determine how much sleet will mix in with snow, as this is one of the most significant factors affecting eventual snow totals. Up until last night most of the long-term computer models were calculating totals in the 6 to 13 inch range with a moderate amount of mixing, and then on the extreme ends there were was one that suggested the potential for lesser amounts, and one suggesting more significant amounts - these possibilities were covered by the forecast "Extreme" range. Overnight, however, we finally came in range of one of the short-term computer models. This model only calculates about 3.5 days out, but it does so with more details than the others, and is *generally* more reliable in the short term. After two calculations overnight, it is clear that this forecast model aligns most with the snowier long-term computer model - together, these two suggest the potential for 12 to 18 inches of snow. Additionally, most of the other long-term computer models have edged upward over the past 24 hours with all sets of overnight calculations suggesting over 8 inches of snow. Regardless of exact snowfall totals, here's the bottomline: a significant winter storm will cause travel conditions to deteriorate Saturday evening after 4PM. Heavy snow and sleet is likely to make travel very difficult to impossible Saturday night when most of the snow is likely to fall. The Sunday morning commute will be severely impacted as snow is likely to continue into Sunday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will drop to near zero degrees Sunday and Monday nights.

Next Update:
Around 8PM tonight.

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7PM Wednesday

We'll have one more day of calm weather on Thursday before winter lets loose this weekend. Light snow is likely to develop after 12AM Friday and persist through about sunrise. Still expecting about an in inch of snow. Temperatures should generally hold steady in the mid-20s, so untreated roads and roads with little traffic will likely be slick in the morning. Temperatures rise into the upper 30s Friday afternoon.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Saturday is the calm before the real storm.
Cold with temperatures in the low 20s at best. Major weekend storm moves in Saturday evening. Snow is likely to begin falling sometime between sunset and midnight. It may fall heavily during the first half of the night. Sometime Sunday morning, snow remains likely to mix with or changeover to sleet/ice. Pure sleet does not accumulate as well as snow, so accumulation rates are likely to decrease if this happens. The storm total accumulation will depend on how long this mixing period lasts. If the changeover is brief or does not happen, then there is the potential for significant total snow accumulations. If there is a complete changeover that lasts for an extended period of time, then more moderate accumulations are likely. Frozen precipitation is likely to continue through Sunday morning into the afternoon. At this time, we're probably looking at the 6 to 13 inch range, but this can certainly shift over the next few days. The "extreme range" of snow totals for this storm is roughly 4 to 18 inches. This afternoon, I looked back at our notable storms over the past 15 years - of the storms that have taken similar paths to this one, the most significant produced 10.5 inches of snow.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Gusty winds will usher in bitterly cold air following the storm. Sunday night temperatures are likely to fall to near zero degrees. Monday could be lucky to warm to 10 degrees. Monday night temperatures have the potential to fall below zero, before rising into the teens on Tuesday. Temperatures gradually moderate through next Wednesday, when our next storm approaches.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Next Update:
Thursday Morning-ish


School Impact Probability
Updated: January 14, 2019
For January 14th through 18th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (14) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (15)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (16)
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (17)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (18)
Medium
Medium
Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!

-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
144312 Visiting Snowflakes
Since January 2009
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