Thursday January 17

Major Weekend Storm

School Forecast for:
Friday January 18th
Last Updated: 7:00PM Wednesday January 16, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal


8AM Thursday

This short update will only focus on the major weekend storm. For the past several days we have been waiting to determine how much sleet will mix in with snow, as this is one of the most significant factors affecting eventual snow totals. Up until last night most of the long-term computer models were calculating totals in the 6 to 13 inch range with a moderate amount of mixing, and then on the extreme ends there were was one that suggested the potential for lesser amounts, and one suggesting more significant amounts - these possibilities were covered by the forecast "Extreme" range. Overnight, however, we finally came in range of one of the short-term computer models. This model only calculates about 3.5 days out, but it does so with more details than the others, and is *generally* more reliable in the short term. After two calculations overnight, it is clear that this forecast model aligns most with the snowier long-term computer model - together, these two suggest the potential for 12 to 18 inches of snow. Additionally, most of the other long-term computer models have edged upward over the past 24 hours with all sets of overnight calculations suggesting over 8 inches of snow. Regardless of exact snowfall totals, here's the bottomline: a significant winter storm will cause travel conditions to deteriorate Saturday evening after 4PM. Heavy snow and sleet is likely to make travel very difficult to impossible Saturday night when most of the snow is likely to fall. The Sunday morning commute will be severely impacted as snow is likely to continue into Sunday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will drop to near zero degrees Sunday and Monday nights.

Next Update:
Around 8PM tonight.


7PM Wednesday

We'll have one more day of calm weather on Thursday before winter lets loose this weekend. Light snow is likely to develop after 12AM Friday and persist through about sunrise. Still expecting about an in inch of snow. Temperatures should generally hold steady in the mid-20s, so untreated roads and roads with little traffic will likely be slick in the morning. Temperatures rise into the upper 30s Friday afternoon.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

Saturday is the calm before the real storm.
Cold with temperatures in the low 20s at best. Major weekend storm moves in Saturday evening. Snow is likely to begin falling sometime between sunset and midnight. It may fall heavily during the first half of the night. Sometime Sunday morning, snow remains likely to mix with or changeover to sleet/ice. Pure sleet does not accumulate as well as snow, so accumulation rates are likely to decrease if this happens. The storm total accumulation will depend on how long this mixing period lasts. If the changeover is brief or does not happen, then there is the potential for significant total snow accumulations. If there is a complete changeover that lasts for an extended period of time, then more moderate accumulations are likely. Frozen precipitation is likely to continue through Sunday morning into the afternoon. At this time, we're probably looking at the 6 to 13 inch range, but this can certainly shift over the next few days. The "extreme range" of snow totals for this storm is roughly 4 to 18 inches. This afternoon, I looked back at our notable storms over the past 15 years - of the storms that have taken similar paths to this one, the most significant produced 10.5 inches of snow.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

Gusty winds will usher in bitterly cold air following the storm. Sunday night temperatures are likely to fall to near zero degrees. Monday could be lucky to warm to 10 degrees. Monday night temperatures have the potential to fall below zero, before rising into the teens on Tuesday. Temperatures gradually moderate through next Wednesday, when our next storm approaches.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

Next Update:
Thursday Morning-ish

School Impact Probability
Updated: January 14, 2019
For January 14th through 18th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (14) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (15)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (16)
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (17)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (18)
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.


Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall. Additional details about how the forecast is made can be found HERE. We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!


KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
141477 Visiting Snowflakes
Since January 2009
Archive of Updates

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License