Sunday January 13

Calm week, becoming more active

School Forecast through:
Thursday January 17th
Last Updated: 10:00AM Sunday January 13, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

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(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

10AM Sunday

The week ahead looks to be pretty calm and dry, however, there are early signals that conditions could get interesting next weekend.

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High pressure will dominate the next few days. This will keep skies mainly clear with a few clouds on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be pretty typical for this time of year - reaching about 30 degrees. On Wednesday, a clipper storm - that is, a small quick moving weather system - will sweep through southern Canada. No precipitation is expected from this system, but it will brush us with some clouds on Wednesday. By Thursday the system passes, leaving clear skies and a fresh dose of cold air in its wake - overnight temperatures are likely to fall into the teens. On Friday, a second clipper system will again scoot by to our north. This second one will likely dig a little further south than Wednesday's, and it is possible that we could see some light snowfall from it on Friday. It is too early to pinpoint exact timing or amounts of any potential snow on Friday, but the general trend has been for about an inch or less during the daylight hours.

Things get interesting next weekend.

For the past several days, there has been a very strong signal from essentially all long-range computer models that there is the potential for some form of significant storm next weekend. Computer models began picking up on this storm last week, and have remained consistent in its eventual formation. Kingstonsnows alluded to this potential storm and it's general weather pattern this past Thursday [Link].

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A key piece of energy for this potential storm can actually be identified right now as a subtle wind shift of the coast of Japan [Link]! There is a general consensus that this energy should make its way toward the U.S. West Coast, eventually spawning a mature storm over the mid-Mississippi River Valley late in the week. Long range computer models would then have this storm push into the Northeastern states. Such a storm would likely bring snow to parts of the northeast and rain to other parts. Over the past two days there has been a general trend that favors snow/sleet with this storm, opposed to another heavy rain event. And within the past 24 hours, all four of the four main long-term computer models have been suggesting a primarily snow event for our local area. This-Can-Change. Because this potential storm is still a full week out, there is a lot that we simply cannot be sure of at this time. What we do know is: 1) because the notable consistency among almost all long-range computer models, it is more likely than not that some form of storm will develop at some point next weekend, 2) there is a decent chance that we will be impacted in some sort of way, and 3) while there are some indications for snow, it is too early to identify specific precipitation types, amounts, or timing.

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This is the type of storm that is likely to receive significant media hype. I have already come across one article proclaiming "MASSIVE SNOWSTORM WILL LEAD ARCTIC PLUNGE!". Articles like this are not forecasts, and they are not meteorology. Meteorology - the study of weather - is a science that relies on calculations. Today, computer models are used to quickly perform many of the extensive equations that are used to calculate weather patterns. Literally anyone can go online and find these computer models and post them as "fact", and sadly many people do. Unfortunately, this is like copying someone else's homework and turning it in for a grade without even checking it. Regardless of whether they are ultimately right or wrong, what these people fail to realize is that, we will never be able to be able to obtain all of the data that we need to make our weather equations and calculations perfect. Because of this, there is error inherent in every computer model, so meteorologists must apply experience and understanding to realize the limitations of computer models. Without digressing any further I simply caution you that any article proclaiming that a certain event "will" happen many days in advance should be taken with a grain of salt, and that any article that does not acknowledge uncertainty within a forecast should be taken with a grain of salt. Any article that reads like it is yelling at you, should be taken with several grains of salt.

The best course of action for this potential storm, at this time, is to simply monitor forecasts over the next several days. By Wednesday or Thursday, we should have a fairly good idea of what to expect.

Next Update:
Monday Evening

-Ethan


School Impact Probability
Updated: January 5, 2019
For January 14th through 18th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (14) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (15)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday (16)
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (17)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (18)
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Last year, Kingstosnows issued its first seasonal snow forecast [Link]. The forecast called for 48 inches of snow throughout the season with a likely range of 35 to 61 inches. The forecast was made on December 12th, and by winter's end a total of 51.3 inches had fallen. Issued over four months before the last snow of the season, last year's season forecast was just 3.3 inches below the actual season total.

Last year's forecast was based what I'm calling the "Second Snow Rule". This is an observation in Kingstonsnows data since 2004 that there is a fairly strong correlation between the date of the second snowfall of the season and the total snowfall for the season. As was pointed out after our November snowstorm, there is really no appreciable correlation between the date of the first snowfall and the season total [Link]. If one were to use the date of the first snowfall to estimate the season total, the forecast would off by an average of 42 inches - that is a very significant error. However, if one were to use the date of either the second or third snowfall to estimate the season total, the forecast would be off by a more acceptable average of 12 inches. So far this winter, we have had three measurable snowfalls: November 16th, December 24th, and December 30th. Using the correlation of the 1st snowfalls, a season total of 73.3 inches +/- 42 inches would be expected. However, using both the more accurate 2nd or 3rd snowfall correlations, a season total of roughly 34 inches +/- 12.6 inches would be expected. Based on these numbers, Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall.

We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!
-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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Since January 2009
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