Monday January 7

Light snow likely Tuesday Morning

School Forecast for:
Tuesday January 8th
Last Updated: 6:00PM Monday January 7, 2019
Delay No School Early Dismissal
60%
(Medium)

20%
(Low)
0%
(Nope)

6PM Monday

A band of precipitation is likely to move through the region late tonight. Projected timing of this band has remained pretty constant over the past day or so - expecting it to move through the Kingston area between 1AM and 7AM. During this time light snow is likely. There is the potential for up to about an inch of snow, but expecting closer to half an inch. After about 5AM, snow may change over to light sleet or a freezing drizzle which could lead to very light icing conditions. Temperatures across the region are currently in the 22 to 24 degree range. Temperatures should hold steady overnight, with a slight increase toward the 26 to 28 degree range likely toward daybreak - this is plenty cold enough for road impacts, and slick conditions are likely through the early morning hours.

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The current and forecast conditions are more favorable for school impacts than last Thursday when 0.6 inches of snow fell between 11:30PM and 3AM with temperatures in the 29 to 30 degree range. The impact probabilities have been updated to reflect this. Due to the timing and favorable temperatures, impacts are more likely than not tomorrow. However, due to the light nature of the forecast snow (likely around half an inch) have opted to go for potentially conservative high-end "medium" delay probabilities, opposed to explicitly "high" probabilities (70 to 100%). In either case, use caution when heading out tomorrow!

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Unfortunately, I do not anticipate being able to post another update tonight, so this will likely be the final update on this storm. No additional snow is currently expected this week, but the long term outlook for the second half of January appears to be more favorable for potential snow events - we'll discuss more later!


6:30PM Sunday

At this time, continuing to monitor the potential for snow Monday night. High pressure in place on Monday will result in cold dry conditions with high temperatures struggling to reach 30 degrees. With the initial dry air in place, it is looking like what might have been an initial batch of light snow Monday evening may be limited to simple flurries at best. Most of the Monday overnight continues to look dry. However, a seemingly potent frontal boundary will approach early Tuesday. This boundary continues to have the potential to produce a brief period of light to moderate snow most likely between 3AM and 7AM. This snow has the potential to come somewhat as a "burst" of moderate snow, which even despite the shot duration, may coat all surfaces including roads. A half inch or so of snow is possible. Given the timing of this potential burst of snow, impacts to the Tuesday morning commute remain possible.

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Updates will be posted on Monday.

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12PM Saturday

The week ahead will feature generally calm conditions with another chance for light snow Monday into Tuesday.

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Sunday kicks the week off with a mix of sun and clouds. These clouds will be generated by a very weak weather disturbance rippling through the atmosphere and likely setting off some flurries or snow showers in the mountains. An area of tranquil high pressure will slip in Sunday night, and this will help to surge a wave of colder air into our region Sunday night and Monday Temperatures are likely to fall into the teens and 20s during that timeframe. A glimpse of sun is possible Monday morning before thin high clouds begin to filter in. Our next storm system will actually be moving through Southern Canada on Monday, but the tail-end looks like it will graze our region. With cold air initially in place, anything that falls Monday night is likely to be in the form of snow. At the moment, potential snowfall Monday night looks to come in two waves, opposed to a steady snowfall throughout the night. The first wave is likely to be a brief shot of light snow sometime between 7PM and 11PM Monday. The second wave of snow, has the potential to materialize sometime between 3AM and 9AM Tuesday. Light accumulations are possible with each wave of snow, but the morning one looks to be more potent. The circulation behind the storm will initially help to draw in relatively mild air Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, but colder air is likely to filter in later in the week.

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Details regarding the potential Monday night snowfall will need to be refined later this weekend, but at this time there is the potential for light snow accumulations. There is the potential for impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

Next Update:
Sunday Evening


School Impact Probability
Updated: January 5, 2019
For January 7th through 11th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (7) Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday (8)
Medium
Medium
Low
Very Low
Wednesday (9)
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (10)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday (11)
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


Season Forecast
5:00AM Wednesday January 2nd

Last year, Kingstosnows issued its first seasonal snow forecast [Link]. The forecast called for 48 inches of snow throughout the season with a likely range of 35 to 61 inches. The forecast was made on December 12th, and by winter's end a total of 51.3 inches had fallen. Issued over four months before the last snow of the season, last year's season forecast was just 3.3 inches below the actual season total.

Last year's forecast was based what I'm calling the "Second Snow Rule". This is an observation in Kingstonsnows data since 2004 that there is a fairly strong correlation between the date of the second snowfall of the season and the total snowfall for the season. As was pointed out after our November snowstorm, there is really no appreciable correlation between the date of the first snowfall and the season total [Link]. If one were to use the date of the first snowfall to estimate the season total, the forecast would off by an average of 42 inches - that is a very significant error. However, if one were to use the date of either the second or third snowfall to estimate the season total, the forecast would be off by a more acceptable average of 12 inches. So far this winter, we have had three measurable snowfalls: November 16th, December 24th, and December 30th. Using the correlation of the 1st snowfalls, a season total of 73.3 inches +/- 42 inches would be expected. However, using both the more accurate 2nd or 3rd snowfall correlations, a season total of roughly 34 inches +/- 12.6 inches would be expected. Based on these numbers, Kingstonsnows is formally forecasting a total of 34 inches of snow this winter, with a likely range of 22 to 46 inches. This forecast is below the average seasonal total of 44.8 inches.

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Although the forecast anticipates a likely range of 22 to 46 inches, there is about a 25% chance of less than 22 inches of snow, and a 25% chance of more than 46 inches of snow. It is important to remember that it only takes one well placed nor'easter to dump significant snowfall.

We'll see how the forecast holds up by April!
-Ethan

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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Since January 2009
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