Thursday December 20

Significant Rain Arrives Tonight

School Forecast through:
Friday December 21st
Last Updated: 9:00AM Thursday December 20th
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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9AM Thursday

Significant rain storm remains set for tonight through tomorrow. The latest surface observations from around the country depict a developing low pressure system along the Alabama/Mississippi border. This low pressure is associated with a significant amount of moisture across the southeastern states and a warm front that currently extends along the southeastern coast. The storm will move northward throughout the day bringing significant rainfall tonight through Friday. Locally, rain can be expected after 7PM tonight. We'll likely experience periods of heavy rain beginning Friday morning that will persist into the afternoon. Temperatures are likely to reach the upper 50s on Friday. Trends over the past 24 hours have consistently suggested that most of Ulster County should experience 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with around 2 inches likely in Kingston. Higher amounts are likely in the mountains where there is the potential for up to 5 inches in some areas.

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The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch through Friday night. Notable rises on local streams and creeks are likely into the weekend. Localized flooding is also possible in poor drainage areas. Be sure to clear debris from any drain pipes around your home before you head inside for the evening.


12AM Wednesday

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for the next two days. This will allow for dry conditions Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures are likely to run in the 30s on Wednesday but make the 40s on Thursday. Clouds will begin to increase Thursday afternoon as another rainstorm approaches to end the week. This rain storm will have origins over the Gulf of Mexico and will be transporting very warm, moist air toward our region. Rain will move in Thursday night, and continue through Friday. At this time snow and ice are not a concern - temperatures are likely to start off in the mid-30s Thursday night, but have the potential to surge into the upper 50s on Friday as the storm ushers in warm, moist southern winds. Periods of heavy rain on Friday should be expected, and there is the potential for up to 2 inches of rain. Some rain showers could linger into early Saturday, but primarily dry conditions are expected to start the weekend. As the storm clears, temperatures should steadily fall back into 25-40 degree range.

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Localized flooding may become a concern with the heavy rainfall that is expected.

School Impact Probability
Updated: December 19, 2018
For December 24th - 28th

Day Snow/Ice Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday Very Low Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday
Very Low
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday
Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

November Summary

November 2018 will be remembered as one of the coldest, wettest, and snowiest Novembers in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

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The month started off very warm and wet. Temperatures during the first four days of the month ran in the upper 50s and 60s with our highest temperature of November reaching 69 degrees on November 2nd. This 69 degree reading was 14 degrees above normal. The warmth was accompanied by very wet conditions. Between the 2nd and 3rd of the month 2.86 inches of rain fell as a storm system moved through. During the week after the storm the weather was fairly typical for the time of year. Temperatures hovered around normal, generally reaching the 50s. Light rain fell on the 5th and 6th. On the 9th, a pair of cold fronts passed through our region. About half an inch of rain fell with the fronts, and they would trigger an extended spell of below normal temperatures that would define the rest of the month. From the 9th through the 21st, temperatures consistently ran up to 13 degrees below normal with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s/40s and lows falling into the 20s/low 30s. The most defining period of the month was on November 15th/16th as a significant snowstorm impacted the region. The storm developed near Charleston, South Carolina the morning of the 15th, and trekked up the coast over the course of the day. The storm arrived in Kingston just before 5pm. Snow fell heavily with over 8 inches falling in under 5 hours. The storm total was 9.5 inches, making it Kingston's 14th largest snowstorm since Kingstonsnows archives began 14 years ago. The coldest air of the season arrived at the start of the 4th week of the month. The minimum temperature of 6 degrees on the 23rd was the 4th lowest November temperature recorded since 1896, while the minimum temperature of 10 degrees on the 22nd was the 12th lowest November temperature on record. The average temperature these two days was over 20 degrees below normal. On November 25th, we recorded our first above normal temperatures in nearly three weeks, and the remainder of the month was close to average.

In looking at past winters, it turns out that there is very little correlation between the temperatures, snow, or precipitation that occurs in November and the amount of snow during the rest of the winter. A better method of using early season weather to estimate the amount of snow during the rest of the winter in Kingston is by using the date of the second measurable snowfall. Earlier second snows correlate with higher seasonal totals. We still have yet to experience our second measurable snowfall.

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