Wednesday December 12

Calm week, wet weekend

School Forecast through:
Friday December 14th
Last Updated: 12:00AM Wednesday December 12th
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)

0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)

12AM Wednesday

It's been a pretty dry two weeks here in the Hudson valley; our last rainfall was on December 2nd. We'll see a few more days of the calm dry weather before a storm system swings up from the South bringing us warmer temperatures and a bout of rain for the weekend.

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A high pressure to our north will allow the sun to come out today. Tomorrow, however, a very weak and dry disturbance will approach from the central United States ushering in some clouds Thursday. Can't completely rule out some snow flurries on Thursday either, but the "threat" doesn't seem to be significant. Clouds may thin a little Thursday night, but unfortunately we're likely to have pretty poor viewing conditions for the Geminid meteor shower Thursday night. Friday morning we may see the sun peak out for a while, but currently expecting clouds to increase throughout the day in advance of the weekend's rain event. A steady light rain is likely throughout much of the day on Saturday with half an inch of rain possible. There is the potential for rain to continue on Sunday as well with another half inch possible. We'll ride a wave of warmer temperatures into the weekend. Temperatures will range from the 20s to mid-30s the next few days, but moderate to the mid-30s/mid-40s over the weekend.

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This week's weather factors can be detected in the map of current winds over North America. A very weak disturbance (1.) highlighted in Purple is over the central U.S. and will bring Kingston (yellow star) clouds on Thursday. A second storm system (#2) highlighted in yellow is currently over the West Coast. This second system will swing through the Southern states before bringing us rain for the weekend. At the moment, there is no credible snow threat in the foreseeable future.

Next Update:
On Sunday


School Impact Probability
Updated: November 29, 2018
For December 17th - 21st

Day Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Tuesday
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Wednesday
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.


November Summary

November 2018 will be remembered as one of the coldest, wettest, and snowiest Novembers in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

The month started off very warm and wet. Temperatures during the first four days of the month ran in the upper 50s and 60s with our highest temperature of November reaching 69 degrees on November 2nd. This 69 degree reading was 14 degrees above normal. The warmth was accompanied by very wet conditions. Between the 2nd and 3rd of the month 2.86 inches of rain fell as a storm system moved through. During the week after the storm the weather was fairly typical for the time of year. Temperatures hovered around normal, generally reaching the 50s. Light rain fell on the 5th and 6th. On the 9th, a pair of cold fronts passed through our region. About half an inch of rain fell with the fronts, and they would trigger an extended spell of below normal temperatures that would define the rest of the month. From the 9th through the 21st, temperatures consistently ran up to 13 degrees below normal with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s/40s and lows falling into the 20s/low 30s. The most defining period of the month was on November 15th/16th as a significant snowstorm impacted the region. The storm developed near Charleston, South Carolina the morning of the 15th, and trekked up the coast over the course of the day. The storm arrived in Kingston just before 5pm. Snow fell heavily with over 8 inches falling in under 5 hours. The storm total was 9.5 inches, making it Kingston's 14th largest snowstorm since Kingstonsnows archives began 14 years ago. The coldest air of the season arrived at the start of the 4th week of the month. The minimum temperature of 6 degrees on the 23rd was the 4th lowest November temperature recorded since 1896, while the minimum temperature of 10 degrees on the 22nd was the 12th lowest November temperature on record. The average temperature these two days was over 20 degrees below normal. On November 25th, we recorded our first above normal temperatures in nearly three weeks, and the remainder of the month was close to average.

In looking at past winters, it turns out that there is very little correlation between the temperatures, snow, or precipitation that occurs in November and the amount of snow during the rest of the winter. A better method of using early season weather to estimate the amount of snow during the rest of the winter in Kingston is by using the date of the second measurable snowfall. Earlier second snows correlate with higher seasonal totals. We still have yet to experience our second measurable snowfall.

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