Thursday November 14

Impressive storm underway!

School Forecast for:
Friday November 16th
Last Updated: 8:00PM Thursday November 15th
Delay No School Early Dismissal
20%
(Low)

80%
(High)
0%
(Nope)

8PM Thursday

Our first winter storm of the season has arrived! Snow began falling around 4:45PM, and as of 8PM a very impressive 6 inches has accumulated on, well, everything! Snow will continue at a solid rate for the next several hours. With an additional 2 to 5 inches likely through midnight. Beginning around 11PM snow is expected to begin changing over to sleet as a wedge of warmer air develops well above the ground in the middle layers of the atmosphere. This changeover will mark the "second phase" of this storm. From about midnight through 7AM, we will see a mix of sleet, ice pellets, and freezing drizzle. The precipitation will be much lighter than it is now and will fall at a rate of at least half of what we have seen so far. Less than an inch of measurable accumulation is expected during this time. However, if there is a change over to pure freezing drizzle, then a light glaze of ice is possible on top of what has already fallen. It is becoming increasingly likely that tomorrow morning moisture wrapping around the back of the storm will produce a final "pulse" of precipitation over our area. This is likely to result in a final round of snow/sleet between 7AM and 9AM. If this final pulse does occur, then there is the potential for a quick inch or so of snow before the storm ends around 10AM. All-in-all, this storm has exceeded expectations, and we could easily be looking at 8 to 12 inches of snow when all is said in done.

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Kingston has issued a snow emergency that goes into effect tomorrow morning at 7AM and all cars must be parked on the "even" side of the street. The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Warning in effect until 1PM. This is easily the most impactful first snow that we have had since the 11 inches that fell on December 9, 2005 (a Thursday night).

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12:30PM Thursday

Just a quick update: The National Weather Service has just upgraded Ulster and Dutchess Counties to a Winter Storm Warning. Travel will be very difficult, especially during the evening commute today. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour will be possible starting early this evening. Avoid unnecessary travel this evening, if possible, otherwise allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination.

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A full update focusing on the second half of the storm will be posted this evening.

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9AM Thursday

All systems go for impressive early season snowfall. Snow is currently falling in Washington DC with the leading edge of the snow now entering Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

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Snow looks to arrive in the Kingston area around 4PM. With temperatures currently in the 23-25 degree range and barely expected to rise to the freezing mark, snow will have no trouble sticking. Snow will fall steadily through the evening at a moderate intensity. Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate for the 5PM - 7PM commute, and several inches of pure snow are likely through midnight. With this being the first snow of the season, use extra caution when driving!

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There will be two distinct periods of this storm. The first half will be 4pm to roughly 12am featuring moderately accumulating snow. The second half will be from about 12am onward and will feature lighter mixed wintry precipitation that will not accumulate to the extent of the first half. Will discuss the second half of this storm this evening.

Next Update:
This Evening

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9PM Wednesday

Tonight's radar reveals a potent system taking shape to our south. Over the next 36 hours, this storm is poised to bring the first snowfall to many parts of the northeast, including Kingston.

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Tonight, temperatures fall into the lower 20s. Dry start to the day tomorrow. Steadily increasing clouds with overcast skies. Maximum temperatures barely rise to the freezing mark. Snow begins to enter Ulster County between 3pm and 5pm. Snow should have no trouble sticking, and roads are likely to begin deteriorating within the first hour or so. Steady snow, of moderate intensity, continues through about midnight. Looking for about three inches of snow during this time. Around midnight, snow begins to mix with sleet. Mix of snow, sleet, and ice pellets through about 7AM. An additional inch or so of accumulation possible during this time. Still a bit of uncertainty regarding the last few hours of the storm between about 7am and 10am. If precipitation tapers off, it will likely do as as drizzle. However, there's been some support for a quick "pulse" of residual moisture during these last three hours which could actually drop temperatures slightly allowing for a brief change over back to snow. Will favor a sleet/drizzle ending for now.

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All in all, road conditions look to be impacted Thursday evening through Friday morning. First half of the storm is snow with most of the accumulations. Second half is sleet with less accumulation but potentially icy conditions on top of the snow that's already fallen. Based on the current timing, not really expecting local early dismissals Thursday (20%, Low) though after school activities are probably likely to be cancelled.

Next Update:
Thursday Morning

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12PM Wednesday

Confidence remains high for tomorrow night's storm with no significant changes this morning. Storm looks to begin with a period of snow starting early Thursday evening. Snow should fall through about midnight, and this will be the best time for accumulations. After midnight, snow is likely to mix with sleet which should level off the accumulations but allow for a continuation of slick conditions. Sleet is likely to transition to rain after daybreak. If confidence increases that frozen precipitation may extend through daybreak, then the probabilities may need to be adjusted to reflect better cancellation chances. For now, will defer any adjustments until later. Additionally, although early dismissals are not anticipated for Thursday, it would not be surprising to see after-school activities cancelled especially if the storm develops slightly earlier than currently projected.

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Next Update:
10PM Wednesday

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7PM Tuesday

First winter storm of the season continues to be forecast for Thursday into Friday. Cold air will be in place over the region on Thursday with high temperatures just making it to the lower 30s. Developing storm system will move in from the south Thursday afternoon with snow now expected to develop during the late afternoon or early evening. Snow is likely to continue through at least 12AM Friday with much of the accumulations likely occurring during this timeframe. After midnight, snow is increasingly likely to mix with and change over to sleet. While sleet still has many of the icy properties of snow, it simply does not accumulate as well, so there may be a leveling off of the accumulation amounts after midnight. Liquid rain is likely to begin mixing in sometime after 4am and gradually taper off through the morning. Key factors that will determine exact accumulation totals and impacts are 1) how heavily snow falls Thursday evening, and 2) how long the transition from sleet to rain takes Friday morning. Today, there has been a slight trend toward heavier precipitation Thursday evening, resulting in the potential for moderate to heavy accumulations. This has been acknowledged in the "extreme range", however the "likely range" remains more conservative at this time.

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Based on the current trends, it is likely that the National Weather Service will issue a winter weather alert sometime on Wednesday. For a refresher on what different alerts mean, check out today's Facebook post on "Understanding winter weather alerts": Link!

Next Update:
By 12PM Wednesday

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6PM Monday

The first of two storms this week will bring rain from about 12AM tonight through tomorrow morning. No snow/sleet accumulation. Attention instantly turns to second storm for Thursday-Friday. Since this morning, there really hasn't been much change, but rather an increase in confidence of the previous forecast. Cold air in place over the region on Thursday (temperatures in the 30s), will set the stage for a potential snow event. A storm will approach from the south with precipitation likely overspreading the area Thursday evening. Precipitation is likely to start as or quickly change to snow. As the storm progresses, it will gradually erode the cold air changing snow over to sleet then eventually rain on Friday. Snow/Sleet amounts will be very dependent on how long it takes to erode the cold air, but it is possible that it could take most of the night. With plenty of moisture to work with, the potential exists for several inches of accumulation.

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With the storm still being three days away, there is certainly the potential for the snow gauge to shift. The ranges are expected to eventually narrow down and a specific forecast will be issued as confidence increases. In the meantime, check out today's Facebook post on Winter Precipitation to learn about the differences between snow, sleet and other frozen precipitations: Link!

Next Update:
Tuesday Evening

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12AM Monday

The average date of Kingston's first snow is November 30th, meaning that half of all winters see snow before then. Two storms will roll through the region this week. With increasingly cold air moving over the region, there is the potential for some wet snow or frozen precipitation at the onset of the second storm.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

Today we'll see generally clear and calm conditions as a storm system develops well to our south over Texas. Tonight the storm will move up the coast bringing rain after midnight. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s as the precipitation begins, so it is possible that some sleet may fall with the rain. However, if sleet does mix in it will be too warm for it to accumulate. Additionally, as the storm progresses, it will erode cold air above the ground changing any sleet over to plain rain. Rain should taper off by Tuesday afternoon. Behind the storm colder air will filter into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. We'll see intervals of sun and clouds Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures fall into the 30s; low temperatures will dip into the 20s. This cold air will set the stage for potential snow Thursday night as a second storm moves in. The storm will be very similar to tonight's, but with colder air in place it is likely to begin as wet snow Thursday night. Best chance of snow will be after sunset Thursday. A gradual transition from snow to sleet to rain is likely Thursday night into Friday morning. This storm will need to be monitored this week, but there is currently the potential for light snow accumulation.

Next Update:
Monday Night

School Impact Probability
Updated: November 12, 2018

Day Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday Very Low Very Low Very Low
Tuesday
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Wednesday
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday
Medium
Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

KingstonSnows ♦ Kingston, NY
Since January 2009
Archive of Updates

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