Monday November 12

Increasing threat for Thursday Night

School Forecast through:
Thursday November 15th
Last Updated: 6:00PM Monday November 12th
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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6PM Monday

The first of two storms this week will bring rain from about 12AM tonight through tomorrow morning. No snow/sleet accumulation. Attention instantly turns to second storm for Thursday-Friday. Since this morning, there really hasn't been much change, but rather an increase in confidence of the previous forecast. Cold air in place over the region on Thursday (temperatures in the 30s), will set the stage for a potential snow event. A storm will approach from the south with precipitation likely overspreading the area Thursday evening. Precipitation is likely to start as or quickly change to snow. As the storm progresses, it will gradually erode the cold air changing snow over to sleet then eventually rain on Friday. Snow/Sleet amounts will be very dependent on how long it takes to erode the cold air, but it is possible that it could take most of the night. With plenty of moisture to work with, the potential exists for several inches of accumulation.

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With the storm still being three days away, there is certainly the potential for the snow gauge to shift. The ranges are expected to eventually narrow down and a specific forecast will be issued as confidence increases. In the meantime, check out today's Facebook post on Winter Precipitation to learn about the differences between snow, sleet and other frozen precipitations: Link!

Next Update:
Tuesday Evening

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12AM Monday

The average date of Kingston's first snow is November 30th, meaning that half of all winters see snow before then. Two storms will roll through the region this week. With increasingly cold air moving over the region, there is the potential for some wet snow or frozen precipitation at the onset of the second storm.

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Click image for larger and clearer version

Today we'll see generally clear and calm conditions as a storm system develops well to our south over Texas. Tonight the storm will move up the coast bringing rain after midnight. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s as the precipitation begins, so it is possible that some sleet may fall with the rain. However, if sleet does mix in it will be too warm for it to accumulate. Additionally, as the storm progresses, it will erode cold air above the ground changing any sleet over to plain rain. Rain should taper off by Tuesday afternoon. Behind the storm colder air will filter into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. We'll see intervals of sun and clouds Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures fall into the 30s; low temperatures will dip into the 20s. This cold air will set the stage for potential snow Thursday night as a second storm moves in. The storm will be very similar to tonight's, but with colder air in place it is likely to begin as wet snow Thursday night. Best chance of snow will be after sunset Thursday. A gradual transition from snow to sleet to rain is likely Thursday night into Friday morning. This storm will need to be monitored this week, but there is currently the potential for light snow accumulation.

Next Update:
Monday Night

School Impact Probability
Updated: November 12, 2018

Day Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday Very Low Very Low Very Low
Tuesday
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Wednesday
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday
Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Friday
Medium
Low
Very Low
School impact probabilities offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

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Since January 2009
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