Tuesday March 13

Snow Expected Tonight

School Forecast for:
Tuesday March 13th
Last Updated: 6:30PM Monday March 12, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
(Medium) 70%


The Forecast
6:30PM Monday

Current radar depicts our latest storm developing well. The main storm is down around the D.C.-Philly area with lighter precipitation beginning to creep into the edges of New York. Looking for light snow to develop locally by about 12am and continue through the night. Looking for about 1 to 3 inches of snow by 7AM, with an additional inch or two throughout the rest of the morning. The snow gauge from earlier today is still valid. The morning commute will be slick.

Current Radar depicts light snow creeping into New York.

As far as school impacts…
Good chance of at least delays tomorrow, but the question remains whether we cross that cancellation line. The biggest hesitation on the cancellation probabilities are the temperatures overnight. Currently, expecting temperatures to hold steady in the 30 to 32 degree range for most of the storm. While this is cold enough to produce accumulating snow, road temperatures may remain slightly warmer. While snow is expected to eventually begin impacting roadways, it is very possible that many roads will simply be slushy to wet tomorrow morning. This is especially likely if the lower total snow amounts of less than three inches verify. However, given the overall big picture that 1) snow is expected to fall continuously 2) several inches are likely by the morning and 3) snow is likely to continue falling through mid-morning… will continue to tepidly favor a cancellation. Slick conditions are likely tomorrow morning, especially on side roads.

Tonight's not the night that I would bet my homework on a cancellation, but we'll see what happens. This will be the only update tonight.

11AM Monday

Update #4:
This morning we are finally honing in on a more concise scenario. Currently our storm is currently beginning to develop off the Carolinas, and is spreading rain and snow into Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic states. The storm will gradually progress up the coast, brining snow into our area by about midnight. At this point, have trimmed down the forecast scenarios focusing on a general 3 or 4 inches locally.


Temperatures with this storm will only fall into the 33 to 30 range, so expecting another wet snow. With the residual warmth from today, it may take several hours for the roads to be anything more than wet. However, slick conditions are expected to develop as the night progresses, likely impacting the morning commute. Snow should taper off during the morning tomorrow, likely between 9AM and 12PM. Winds should remain light.

6PM Sunday

Update #3:
The third major nor'easter of the month will affect the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday. The brunt of this storm will be from Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts up through Maine. Over a foot of snow is likely in these areas. Locally, several inches of snow remains likely. Trends this weekend have continued to shift the storm slightly closer to New York. While this has resulted in our "likely range" edging up slightly, it has also warranted more notable increases in our "extreme range" as the threat of potential snow bands enters the picture.


A wide area of just "several inches" is likely on the storm's edge, but there are likely to be heavy bands of snow about 20 to 30 miles east of these lower totals. Under these bands snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be common. Currently, these 6+ inch amounts remain forecast to fall over Connecticut and western Massachusetts about up to the New York State border - about 20 miles east of Kingston. While Kingston remains forecast to receive around 4 inches of snow, if the storm were to shift about 25 miles to the west, we could see totals over 6 inches with a period of heavy snow. Of the various compute models, none explicitly place Kingston in these heavier snow regions, but as a forecaster the potential can not be dismissed. For this reason, the "extreme range" has been increased quite a bit, but the forecast remains focused on the lower half of that potential.

8PM Saturday

Update #2:
Confidence is increasing in an accumulating snowfall event on Tuesday. This storm will form off the east coast, and over the past 24 hours trends have been for the storm to move closer to the coast. This increases the chances for accumulating snow. The best chance of snowfall, and the highest totals, will be from Long Island into Connecticut and Massachusetts. Most of southeast NY has the potential for up to 6 inches of snow. The Kingston Snow Gauge remains about the same as yesterday with a slight increase in potential amounts. Several inches of snow are possible Monday night into Tuesday.


9PM Friday

Still monitoring a coastal storm for early next week.

The third nor'easter of the month still looks to develop early next week. Basically, how nor'easters work is they develop along the east coast due to the interaction of cold air to the north and warm air over the ocean. The result is that they often take a track that is roughly parallel to the coastline. A significant factor in how impactful they are is how close to the coast that track is. A relatively close track can be very impactful while a track further out to sea can mean that the storms go virtually unnoticed; next week's storm will be flirting with the second of these two extremes.


This storm looks to take a path that is much further from land than our previous storms this month resulting in significantly less impacts. The Mid Hudson Valley is likely to be on the northern fringe with light snow possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Currently, it is likely that we will experience little or no accumulation, but there is the possibility of a few inches if the storm moves closer to the coast.

February sets Records
March Arrives
Updated: February 27, 2018

February 2018 will be remembered for its warmth. With just one day left in the month, it appears certain that this will be at least the 3rd warmest February on record and may just barely edge into the number 2 spot. Thanks to last week's record breaking heatwave that encompassed the entire east coast, 2018 also now holds the record for warmest temperature ever recorded in the Mid Hudson Valley during the month of February. Last Thursday's temperature at the Dutchess County airport reached 76 degrees during the heatwave beating the previous all-time record high temperature of 73 which was set just last year. It is also worth nothing that on the same day, LaGuardia airport in NYC reached 79 degrees which was the warmest temperature ever recorded in New York State during the month of February.

Needless to say, this warmth has not been good for the snow. Kingston recorded a total of 10.1 inches of snow this month, which is about 5 inches below average. Over the past 13 seasons, only four Februarys have recorded less snow than this year. The current season snow total stands at 32.6 inches, which is about four inches below average. At the beginning of the month, it was noted that seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The most snow in a one week period this month was 5.4 inches, and so February 2018 has failed to reach the 10 inch weekly threshold. Because of this, it will be statistically difficult for this season to reach the normal season snowfall amount of 44 inches. Short of a well-placed nor'easter that drops a lot of snow at once, winter 2018 is likely to end slightly below average. On average March produces about seven inches of snow.


Image caption: This winter's snowfall (Pink Line) dipped slightly below average in February. Click image for larger and clearer version.


Image caption: Kingston is likely to reach the "Likely Range" that was initially forecast back in early December, but it will probably take a strong nor'easter to reach the forecast 48 inches. Click image for larger and clearer version.

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