Friday March 9

Winter Not Quite Over

School Forecast for:
Monday March 12th
Last Updated: 9PM Friday March 9, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal

The Forecast
9PM Friday

Still monitoring a coastal storm for early next week.

The third nor'easter of the month still looks to develop early next week. Basically, how nor'easters work is they develop along the east coast due to the interaction of cold air to the north and warm air over the ocean. The result is that they often take a track that is roughly parallel to the coastline. A significant factor in how impactful they are is how close to the coast that track is. A relatively close track can be very impactful while a track further out to sea can mean that the storms go virtually unnoticed; next week's storm will be flirting with the second of these two extremes.


This storm looks to take a path that is much further from land than our previous storms this month resulting in significantly less impacts. The Mid Hudson Valley is likely to be on the northern fringe with light snow possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Currently, it is likely that we will experience little or no accumulation, but there is the possibility of a few inches if the storm moves closer to the coast.

February sets Records
March Arrives
Updated: February 27, 2018

February 2018 will be remembered for its warmth. With just one day left in the month, it appears certain that this will be at least the 3rd warmest February on record and may just barely edge into the number 2 spot. Thanks to last week's record breaking heatwave that encompassed the entire east coast, 2018 also now holds the record for warmest temperature ever recorded in the Mid Hudson Valley during the month of February. Last Thursday's temperature at the Dutchess County airport reached 76 degrees during the heatwave beating the previous all-time record high temperature of 73 which was set just last year. It is also worth nothing that on the same day, LaGuardia airport in NYC reached 79 degrees which was the warmest temperature ever recorded in New York State during the month of February.

Needless to say, this warmth has not been good for the snow. Kingston recorded a total of 10.1 inches of snow this month, which is about 5 inches below average. Over the past 13 seasons, only four Februarys have recorded less snow than this year. The current season snow total stands at 32.6 inches, which is about four inches below average. At the beginning of the month, it was noted that seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The most snow in a one week period this month was 5.4 inches, and so February 2018 has failed to reach the 10 inch weekly threshold. Because of this, it will be statistically difficult for this season to reach the normal season snowfall amount of 44 inches. Short of a well-placed nor'easter that drops a lot of snow at once, winter 2018 is likely to end slightly below average. On average March produces about seven inches of snow.


Image caption: This winter's snowfall (Pink Line) dipped slightly below average in February. Click image for larger and clearer version.


Image caption: Kingston is likely to reach the "Likely Range" that was initially forecast back in early December, but it will probably take a strong nor'easter to reach the forecast 48 inches. Click image for larger and clearer version.

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Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY
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Since January 2009
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