Tuesday March 6

All systems go.

School Forecast for:
Wednesday March 7th
Last Updated: 10PM March 6, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)
Yup
(Very High)
0%
(Nope)

The Forecast
10PM Tuesday

Long story short, a high-impact storm with significant snowfall remains set for tomorrow. As far as a timeline of what to expect…. light snow is possible between 1AM and 5AM in advance of our main storm. A dusting to an inch is possible from this initial burst. Between 5AM and 10AM we may see scattered light snow or snow may stop falling altogether. After 10AM, conditions will begin to go down hill rapidly as the main storm moves in. Heavy snow is likely to develop by 2PM and persist through 7PM. The storm will taper off between 12AM and 5AM.

As far as totals… basically, looking at a foot of snow. Based on model trends, temperature profiles, and similar historical storms, the "likely range" this heading into this evening is 10 to 15 inches. With an "extreme range" of about 8 to 18. While light snow is likely in the morning, totals through noon should generally be under three inches. The afternoon is when conditions will really ramp up. Travel is not recommended at all tomorrow afternoon and evening. Unless there are significant developments during the storm, the next update will not be until tomorrow evening.

Enjoy the snow and be safe!


9AM Monday

Update #4:
Really no significant changes overnight, which simply increases confidence in what it is to unfold. Classic nor'easter remains poised to deliver a significant snowfall to much of eastern New York, and New England. Looking for a potentially spotty light snow before dawn, becoming steadier around 7AM, with heavy snow moving in around 1PM. Heavy snow should continue through about 7PM, and the storm should wind down after 12AM Thursday. Since the picture remains the same, l want to highlight two details of the storm:

Power outages:
Yes, there is the potential for additional power outages with this storm. Not necessarily because the winds, but because the characteristics of the snow. Wind should only be light to moderate, however the snow will likely be wet and has the potential to cling to tree branches. Temperatures are likely to run around 32 degrees -which is cold enough to support snow- but it also means that the snow will likely be fairly wet. At the moment, the temperature profiles are reminiscent of February 24, 2010 - during that storm about 5 inches of snow fell while temperatures were in the 32 to 35 degree range resulting in tree impacts. While I can not say for a fact if this is what we will be dealing with tomorrow, the possibly certainly should not be overlooked.

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Snowfall rates:
Again it needs to be stressed that the evening commute will very likely be strongly impacted by heavy snowfall rates. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible, especially between 1PM and 7PM. Even if roads like the Thruway are fairly clear, visibilities will likely be impacted. Our snowfall totals for the storm will depend on exactly where and how long the snow bands that produce these high rates set up.

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Regardless of exact snowfall totals, this is likely to be a high-impact snow event with dangerous driving conditions and potential power outages. Anything over 10.0 inches will rank this storm in Kingston's top 10 snowfalls since November 2004.

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An update will be posted at 10PM.

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7PM Monday

Update #3:
Conditions remain primed for a classic nor'easter! While there is still time for variations and shifts in the forecast, today's trends have been consolidating around a rather impactful event with the potential for significant snowfall. As a result confidence is increasing that this will be a high-impact snow event. While snowfall is likely to last throughout the entire day Wednesday, the greatest impacts will be during the afternoon and evening when snowfall rates may approach an inch per hour. Here are some details/questions that have come up today:

Start time: Likely between 2am and 7am Wednesday.
End time: Likely around or shortly after 12am Thursday.
Temperatures: Mid-20s to low-30s; supports all snow.
Winds: 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20's possible; roughly half of what we experienced on Friday.

Travel around the region: This is expected to be a high-impact event for the entire Hudson Valley from Albany to Westchester, and from the Catskills eastward into New England. The vast majority of this area is likely to record 6+ inches of snow. When it comes to travel, however, snowfall rates are generally more useful than snow totals. Snowfall rates will be greatest Wednesday afternoon and evening, and have the potential to approach an inch per hour at times. This will make for difficult travel, especially during the evening commute.

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We'll see how things look in the morning.

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7AM Monday

Update #2:
Kingstonsnows has been monitoring the potential for a winter storm since Saturday, and it appears that this storm will materialize. There is the potential for significant impacts with this storm. Overnight trends have increased potential impacts. Basically what we're looking at is the potential for a well-placed classic nor'easter. Temperatures in advance of this storm are colder than other recent storms, so we're looking at an all snow event. The question remains exactly how much snow. This will depend on the eventual track, but it now appears that any track shifts will likely mean the difference between a moderate and a heavy snowfall event. The Kingstonsnows "extreme range" at this time is 3 to 16 inches with a "likely range" of 6 to 12 inches. The National Weather Service has issued a "Winter Storm Watch" for the entire Hudson Valley for Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. This Watch means that there is the potential for heavy snowfall on the order of 5 to 10 inches. Tomorrow the Watch will either be upgraded to a "Winter Storm Warning" if confidence in heavy impacts continues to increase, or converted to a "Winter Weather Advisory" if more minimal impacts become likely.

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Kingston snows will be posting morning and evening updates until the storm begins.


8PM Sunday

Kingston saw a total of 0.8 inches of snow early Friday morning before conditions switched back to rain. The rain was due to a common weather phenomenon called down sloping, which is essentially wind flowing down the Catskills and warming the valleys. This process was unique to Ulster County and the entire region around us saw 4 to 12 inches. Here's a link to an indepth Kingstonsnows post on the phenomenon: Link.

Our attention now turns to Wednesday.

There is increasing confidence that another nor'easter will develop by the middle of this week. The energy that will trigger this storm is currently producing heavy snow and blizzard conditions across Montana and the Dakotas. As it moves eastward, it is likely to spawn a classic nor'easter off the east coast. This should generally produce a wide area of accumulating snowfall across the interior northeast with rain closer to the coast. A heavier swath of snow is likely to fall along the cold side of the rain-snow line.

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Caption: The map offers a general sense of the big picture over the northeastern states. Rain (green) is likely along the coast with snow across the interior northeast (light blue). A swath of heavier snow with the potential for 6+ inches (dark blue) is likely on the cold side of the rain-snow line. Shifts in the track will shift the relative position of these Snow/HeavySnow/Rain zones.

Temperatures over our region leading up to the storm will be more seasonable (colder) than temperatures that we have experienced in recent weeks. This difference favors a primarily snow event locally. The main uncertainty with this storm will be with the storm track. A storm track closer to the coast will shift the Snow/HeavySnow/Rain all further inland. A storm track further out to sea will shift snow impacts closer to the coast. Confidence in the eventual track should increase over the next 36 hours, and we should have a very good idea of what to expect by Monday PM/Tuesday AM. At the moment, the Mid-Hudson Valley (Ulster/Dutchess Counties) is likely to experience accumulating snow with moderate accumulations possible. The likely timing of local impacts is Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

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Caption: it is too early to issue a specific number forecast for Kingston, but the potential currently exists for a moderate snowfall.

We'll see how things unfold over the next 36 hours. Updates will be posted tomorrow and Tuesday.


February sets Records
March Arrives
Updated: February 27, 2018

February 2018 will be remembered for its warmth. With just one day left in the month, it appears certain that this will be at least the 3rd warmest February on record and may just barely edge into the number 2 spot. Thanks to last week's record breaking heatwave that encompassed the entire east coast, 2018 also now holds the record for warmest temperature ever recorded in the Mid Hudson Valley during the month of February. Last Thursday's temperature at the Dutchess County airport reached 76 degrees during the heatwave beating the previous all-time record high temperature of 73 which was set just last year. It is also worth nothing that on the same day, LaGuardia airport in NYC reached 79 degrees which was the warmest temperature ever recorded in New York State during the month of February.

Needless to say, this warmth has not been good for the snow. Kingston recorded a total of 10.1 inches of snow this month, which is about 5 inches below average. Over the past 13 seasons, only four Februarys have recorded less snow than this year. The current season snow total stands at 32.6 inches, which is about four inches below average. At the beginning of the month, it was noted that seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The most snow in a one week period this month was 5.4 inches, and so February 2018 has failed to reach the 10 inch weekly threshold. Because of this, it will be statistically difficult for this season to reach the normal season snowfall amount of 44 inches. Short of a well-placed nor'easter that drops a lot of snow at once, winter 2018 is likely to end slightly below average. On average March produces about seven inches of snow.

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Image caption: This winter's snowfall (Pink Line) dipped slightly below average in February. Click image for larger and clearer version.

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Image caption: Kingston is likely to reach the "Likely Range" that was initially forecast back in early December, but it will probably take a strong nor'easter to reach the forecast 48 inches. Click image for larger and clearer version.

All 2017 Photos of The Month have been updated.
Check them out via the link on the side and feel free to share any of your photos on Facebook!

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