Tuesday February 27

Uncertainty for Friday's Storm

School Forecast for:
Wednesday and Thursday
Last Updated: 8PM Tuesday February 27, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal

The Forecast

8PM Tuesday

It has been a week since we set the highest temperature ever recorded in the Mid-Hudson Valley during the month of February. That 76 degrees recorded at the Dutchess County Airport was 27 degrees above average. In the week since then, temperatures have continued to run about 13 degrees above average. The well above average temperatures will persist through Wednesday and into Thursday, but slightly more seasonable air is likely to filter into the the region behind a strong storm on Friday. Friday's storm will bring the potential for heavy rain. Currently there is the potential for at least an inch of rain beginning around 7PM Thursday, and persisting into Friday. Currently, temperatures are forecast to fall enough to allow for rain to mix with or eventually change over to wet snow early Friday. This could would likely result in light snow accumulations. However, the main source of uncertainty in the current forecast is exactly how much cold air filters in Friday morning, and this will have significant impacts on whether we see all rain, rain mixed with snow, or notable snow accumulations.

High confidence:
Rain beginning late Thursday evening.

Medium confidence:
Rain mixing with/changing to wet snow late Thursday night.
Light snow accumulations.

Greatest Uncertainty:
How much temperatures fall Thursday night.
How long any pure snow persists.

Rain and/or snow is likely throughout the day or Friday. Calmer weather moves in for the weekend.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

Multiple updates to Friday's developing forecast are planned for tomorrow and Thursday. Stay tuned.

February sets Records
March Arrives
Updated: February 27, 2018

February 2018 will be remembered for its warmth. With just one day left in the month, it appears certain that this will be at least the 3rd warmest February on record and may just barely edge into the number 2 spot. Thanks to last week's record breaking heatwave that encompassed the entire east coast, 2018 also now holds the record for warmest temperature ever recorded in the Mid Hudson Valley during the month of February. Last Thursday's temperature at the Dutchess County airport reached 76 degrees during the heatwave beating the previous all-time record high temperature of 73 which was set just last year. It is also worth nothing that on the same day, LaGuardia airport in NYC reached 79 degrees which was the warmest temperature ever recorded in New York State during the month of February.

Needless to say, this warmth has not been good for the snow. Kingston recorded a total of 10.1 inches of snow this month, which is about 5 inches below average. Over the past 13 seasons, only four Februarys have recorded less snow than this year. The current season snow total stands at 32.6 inches, which is about four inches below average. At the beginning of the month, it was noted that seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The most snow in a one week period this month was 5.4 inches, and so February 2018 has failed to reach the 10 inch weekly threshold. Because of this, it will be statistically difficult for this season to reach the normal season snowfall amount of 44 inches. Short of a well-placed nor'easter that drops a lot of snow at once, winter 2018 is likely to end slightly below average. On average March produces about seven inches of snow.

Image caption: This winter's snowfall (Pink Line) dipped slightly below average in February. Click image for larger and clearer version.Pu78dbG.png
Image caption: Kingston is likely to reach the "Likely Range" that was initially forecast back in early December, but it will probably take a strong nor'easter to reach the forecast 48 inches. Click image for larger and clearer version.

The Extended Outlook offers a general sense of upcoming conditions, but is not a specific forecast. Conditions depicted may change as the they get closer in time.

Updated: February 11, 2018
Click image for larger and clearer version.

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