Wednesday February 21

Wintry Mix Tomorrow

School Forecast for:
Thursday February 22nd
Last Updated: 8PM Wednesday February 21, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal

The Forecast

8PM Wednesday

The temperature in Poughkeepsie reached 76 degrees today. This now stands as a new all-time record high temperature for the month of February, eclipsing the previous record of 73 which was set just three days short of one year ago. Manhattan reached a high of 78 which was the highest temperature ever recorded during the month of February since records began in 1868. As of 8PM, the local temperature has already fallen 20 degrees, and is in the upper 50s. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight and all day tomorrow. Tomorrow's temperatures will be warmest in the morning (upper 30s around 7AM), and slowly fall throughout the day (upper 20s by 7PM). A batch of precipitation is likely to move through the area tomorrow late morning through the afternoon. This precipitation may start as rain showers during the late morning, but is likely to transition to snow and sleet around noon. There is the potential for up to an inch or so of snow/sleet accumulation, but with temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark, accumulations may be mainly on grassy surfaces. Never-the-less, there is a chance of early dismissals tomorrow although the currently projected timing and temperatures do not favor them.


7AM Wednesday

Get ready for some extreme whiplash! ��❄️

Now: 53° in Kingston.
Projected High: 72°.
Temperatures falling by up to 30° between 4PM & 12AM.
Light rain/snow/sleet possible tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures are already at 53 degrees in Kingston. Today we will very likely reach the low 70s, setting a record high for February 21st. The projected high of 72 will challenge the highest February temperature ever recorded which was set just last year when the temperature reached 73. Today's high temperature will occur around 4PM - just before the arrival of a strong cold front. Although not explicitly shown in the attached graphic, this cold front will likely cause a rapid drop in temperatures with temperatures possibly falling as much as 20 degrees between 4PM and 8PM today. Tomorrow, temperatures will be as much as 40 degrees colder during the day. A batch of precipitation is likely to move through between 11AM and 5PM which could produce periods of light rain/snow/sleet as temperatures hover right around freezing. There is the potential for a light coating of snow/sleet mainly between 3PM and 5PM tomorrow.


Click image for larger and clearer version.

February is Here
Updated: February 1, 2018

~ January Recap ~

January was quite a wild ride. The month kicked of with record breaking cold temperatures. New Year's Day recorded a record low of -10 degrees followed by a week of frigid temperatures. The cold reached its most extreme point on January 7th when the low bottomed out at -14 degrees. But the cold was far from permanent; within less than a week we were setting record high temperatures. January 12th recorded a record breaking 62 degrees for the afternoon high, while the following day reached 59 degrees. The warmth was accompanied by heavy rains of over an inch that resulted in flooding and ice jams in various parts of Ulster County; the Wallkill River in New Paltz was particularly affected. By the 16th snow was the headliner with an 8 inch snow storm accounting for more than half of the month's snowfall. A second major rain storm dropped half an inch on the 23rd before the month coasted to a calm finish.

~ The Month Ahead ~

So far this season, Kingston's total snowfall has continued to hover right around the 13-year average. The season snow total as of February 1st is 22.5 inches which is exactly on par with last year's 22.1 inches that had fallen by this date. As we head into February we can expect an uptick in the snowiness. February is historically our most impactful month by far, ad it is when we see a higher frequency of more impactful storms. Of all the weeks between December and March that have ever recorded at least 10 inches of snow, about half of them have occurred in February alone. Seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The outlook over through the first half of this month favors a return to wintery conditions. Below average temperatures are favored over above average temperatures, and the emerging pattern favors active weather with multiple opportunities for accumulating snow.


Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall (pink line) has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.


Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

The Extended Outlook offers a general sense of upcoming conditions, but is not a specific forecast. Conditions depicted may change as the they get closer in time.

Updated: February 11, 2018

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All 2017 Photos of The Month have been updated.
Check them out via the link on the side and feel free to share any of your photos on Facebook!


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