Thursday February 15

Possible Weekend Storm

School Forecast for:
Friday February 16th
Last Updated: 12PM Thursday February 15, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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The Forecast

12PM Thursday

I don't know about you, but I can't help but feel that Old Man Winter has been sleeping on the job for the past week or so. This morning's temperatures in the mid-40s along with tonight's likely rain showers aren't what I personally like to see in mid February. In either case, it appears that Winter may be waking up for at least a few hours this weekend. A nor'easter is likely to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. Over the past 36 hours there has been an increasing probability that this storm will impact our region with snow heading into Sunday …especially south of Albany… and there is the potential for measurable snowfall Saturday night. The amount of snow that falls, if any, will be dependent on the track of the storm. It is too early to speculate at exact snowfall totals as there is still the potential for anywhere from 0 to 7 inches with the more likely range currently being toward the middle of those extremes. We'll see how the outlook unfolds heading into tonight

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12PM Sunday

The Kingston area has picked up about half an inch of pure rain since yesterday evening. Rain will continue through about 4PM today. Temperatures will peak around 40 degrees around 12AM Monday, and then gradually fall to the lower 30s by dawn. There could be slick spots from today's wet weather, but a widespread black ice event is not currently anticipated for the morning. As we progress through the week, winds flowing from the southwest will allow temperatures to build. By Thursday we could reach the low 50s. Since 1949, local temperatures on February 15th (Thursday) have only reached the 50s on eight occasions. A frontal boundary will pass through the region Thursday night into Friday, likely triggering rain and then possibly some snow showers. Currently, neither Thursday nor Friday look to be complete washouts.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

The pattern that has emerged entering mid-February is one that is very unfriendly for snow. The pattern favors conditions such as this week with winds from the south and southwest prevailing, resulting in warmer than average temperatures and mainly rain events with some snow possibly tacked on toward the beginning or end. This does not bode well for us snow lovers. It is entirely possible that this February will not see any significant snowstorms, and as mentioned in the post below from February 1st, seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average. The season snow total currently stands at 28.1 inches, which is about three inches below the 13-year average. The average season total by the end of March is about 43 inches.



February is Here
Updated: February 1, 2018

~ January Recap ~

January was quite a wild ride. The month kicked of with record breaking cold temperatures. New Year's Day recorded a record low of -10 degrees followed by a week of frigid temperatures. The cold reached its most extreme point on January 7th when the low bottomed out at -14 degrees. But the cold was far from permanent; within less than a week we were setting record high temperatures. January 12th recorded a record breaking 62 degrees for the afternoon high, while the following day reached 59 degrees. The warmth was accompanied by heavy rains of over an inch that resulted in flooding and ice jams in various parts of Ulster County; the Wallkill River in New Paltz was particularly affected. By the 16th snow was the headliner with an 8 inch snow storm accounting for more than half of the month's snowfall. A second major rain storm dropped half an inch on the 23rd before the month coasted to a calm finish.

~ The Month Ahead ~

So far this season, Kingston's total snowfall has continued to hover right around the 13-year average. The season snow total as of February 1st is 22.5 inches which is exactly on par with last year's 22.1 inches that had fallen by this date. As we head into February we can expect an uptick in the snowiness. February is historically our most impactful month by far, ad it is when we see a higher frequency of more impactful storms. Of all the weeks between December and March that have ever recorded at least 10 inches of snow, about half of them have occurred in February alone. Seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The outlook over through the first half of this month favors a return to wintery conditions. Below average temperatures are favored over above average temperatures, and the emerging pattern favors active weather with multiple opportunities for accumulating snow.

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Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall (pink line) has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

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Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.



Extended-Outlook
The Extended Outlook offers a general sense of upcoming conditions, but is not a specific forecast. Conditions depicted may change as the they get closer in time.

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