Thursday February 8

Light Snow Possible Tomorrow

School Forecast for:
Friday February 9th
Last Updated: 8PM Thursday February 8, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0%
(Nope)
0%
(Nope)
20%
(Low)

The Forecast

8PM Thursday

A storm system is currently tracking across the northern Great Plains States and is currently impacting Chicago. This storm will bring accumulating snow to northern New York tomorrow, and it could graze our area. There is the potential for up to an inch of light fluffy snow between about 1PM and 7PM tomorrow. This timing is unlikely to impact schools, but if snow does fall, roads are likely to become very slick during the late afternoon and evening.

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Otherwise, this week we will be on the periphery of a subtropical ridge. Woah, hold up - big weather words - what do they mean?? Basically a ridge is another word for an area of "high pressure" (the opposite of a "low pressure" or a storm). The term subtropical refers to where it is located - over the Atlantic ocean to our east. Because the air around ridges flows clockwise …in the same direction as the hands on a clock… our primary wind direction over the next week will be from the south and will result in much warmer than normal temperatures. Basically in a nutshell… this ridge will act like a stationary pinwheel funneling warmer temperatures and more moisture into our region, resulting in generally overcast skies with chances for rain showers this weekend. Rain showers are likely Saturday night into Sunday. As has been the case with every storm this week, there will be a risk of widespread black ice during the overnight and early morning hours heading into Sunday and then into Monday. We'll likely see a break in the clouds on Monday before precipitation re enters the picture for Tuesday. Temperatures will run well above normal the whole time.

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Click image for larger and clearer version.

Currently, there are no major snowstorms on the horizon.



February is Here
Updated: February 1, 2018

~ January Recap ~

January was quite a wild ride. The month kicked of with record breaking cold temperatures. New Year's Day recorded a record low of -10 degrees followed by a week of frigid temperatures. The cold reached its most extreme point on January 7th when the low bottomed out at -14 degrees. But the cold was far from permanent; within less than a week we were setting record high temperatures. January 12th recorded a record breaking 62 degrees for the afternoon high, while the following day reached 59 degrees. The warmth was accompanied by heavy rains of over an inch that resulted in flooding and ice jams in various parts of Ulster County; the Wallkill River in New Paltz was particularly affected. By the 16th snow was the headliner with an 8 inch snow storm accounting for more than half of the month's snowfall. A second major rain storm dropped half an inch on the 23rd before the month coasted to a calm finish.

~ The Month Ahead ~

So far this season, Kingston's total snowfall has continued to hover right around the 13-year average. The season snow total as of February 1st is 22.5 inches which is exactly on par with last year's 22.1 inches that had fallen by this date. As we head into February we can expect an uptick in the snowiness. February is historically our most impactful month by far, ad it is when we see a higher frequency of more impactful storms. Of all the weeks between December and March that have ever recorded at least 10 inches of snow, about half of them have occurred in February alone. Seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The outlook over through the first half of this month favors a return to wintery conditions. Below average temperatures are favored over above average temperatures, and the emerging pattern favors active weather with multiple opportunities for accumulating snow.

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Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall (pink line) has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

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Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.



Extended-Outlook
The Extended Outlook offers a general sense of upcoming conditions, but is not a specific forecast. Conditions depicted may change as the they get closer in time.

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