Saturday February 3

Storm Likely Tomorrow

School Forecast for:
Monday February 5th
Last Updated: 5:00PM Saturday February 3, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal

The Forecast

5PM Saturday

Tomorrow's storm looks to be Thursday's in reverse.
On Thursday we saw temperature's gradually falling, allowing rain to change to snow with light accumulations as the storm ended; tomorrow will be the opposite. Light snow is likely to develop during the late morning/early afternoon. Because the storm will be passing to our north, however, it will draw in warmer air from the south. This will cause our temperatures to progressively rise throughout the day with high temperatures in the upper 30s likely occurring after sunset. A changeover from snow to rain is now expected to occur by 4pm or 5pm. Rain should persist through about midnight. Up to about an inch of snow is expected before the change over occurs. Towns closer to the Poughkeepsie/Wallkill area will changeover first and see the least amounts of snow accumulation. Colder air will filter in behind the storm with temperatures in the 20s on Monday.


The next potential storm will be Tuesday into Wednesday. We may be on the rain/snow line with this storm as well, but we'll discuss it more in depth during tomorrow's early evening update, which I plan to have posted before the Super Bowl starts.


5:30PM Friday

The rain, which started around 6PM last night transitioned to snow around 1AM and continued through 5AM. Kingston picked up 0.8 inches of snow last night.

Our attention now turns to Sunday's storm. The storm won't be a blockbuster, but a few inches of snow are possible. The main aspect that will need to be watched are the late afternoon/evening temperatures on Sunday. Because the core of the storm will be passing to our north, our winds will be from the south which will cause warm air to move up the Valley — this is the same reason that we saw rain through midnight last night. Yesterday our temperatures peaked around 40 degrees before sunset, fell a few degrees after the sun went down, and then fell low enough for snow after a cold front moved through. With Sunday's storm, temperatures are likely to warm from the mid 20s in the morning to the mid 30s in the evening. The effect of sunset on the temperatures remains to be seen. A mix with or changeover to rain or sleet is very possible Sunday evening.


An update will be posted early tomorrow evening.


10AM Thursday

A cold air mass will shift into the region overnight likely triggering light precipitation. Tonight's precipitation will likely be in the form of showers and squalls which means that it could be hit and miss with conditions varying from town to town more than when there is a uniform area of precipitation. The result is that this type of event tends to have a greater amount of uncertainty than the normal forecast, nevertheless the most likely scenario is that all local areas see at least some precipitation overnight. The most likely timing is light rain showers possible this evening, transitioning to light snow by midnight. Any precipitation should end by 5AM. Any snow accumulations are likely to vary across the region, but a dusting to half an inch is most likely. Colder air will filter in behind tonight's event with temperatures falling to the low teens Friday night.

Our attention then turns to the next storm which is slated to affect the region Sunday into Monday. At this time there is a high level of confidence that this storm will affect our area, the uncertainty remains in the exact details. The most likely scenario at this time is for snow to begin late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon, mix with or change over to rain, before ending as snow Sunday night. The timing and specific track will play a large role in determining what types of precipitation we see and when we see it. There is the potential for several inches of snow at this time.

Click image for larger and clearer version.

Next Update:
By 10PM tonight, followed by daily updates throughout the weekend.

February is Here
Updated: February 1, 2018

~ January Recap ~

January was quite a wild ride. The month kicked of with record breaking cold temperatures. New Year's Day recorded a record low of -10 degrees followed by a week of frigid temperatures. The cold reached its most extreme point on January 7th when the low bottomed out at -14 degrees. But the cold was far from permanent; within less than a week we were setting record high temperatures. January 12th recorded a record breaking 62 degrees for the afternoon high, while the following day reached 59 degrees. The warmth was accompanied by heavy rains of over an inch that resulted in flooding and ice jams in various parts of Ulster County; the Wallkill River in New Paltz was particularly affected. By the 16th snow was the headliner with an 8 inch snow storm accounting for more than half of the month's snowfall. A second major rain storm dropped half an inch on the 23rd before the month coasted to a calm finish.

~ The Month Ahead ~

So far this season, Kingston's total snowfall has continued to hover right around the 13-year average. The season snow total as of February 1st is 22.5 inches which is exactly on par with last year's 22.1 inches that had fallen by this date. As we head into February we can expect an uptick in the snowiness. February is historically our most impactful month by far, ad it is when we see a higher frequency of more impactful storms. Of all the weeks between December and March that have ever recorded at least 10 inches of snow, about half of them have occurred in February alone. Seasons that record no weeks with at least 10 inches of snowfall in February have an 80% chance of ending below average, while seasons that have at least one week with 10 inches of snow in February have less than a 40% chance of ending below average. The outlook over through the first half of this month favors a return to wintery conditions. Below average temperatures are favored over above average temperatures, and the emerging pattern favors active weather with multiple opportunities for accumulating snow.


Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall (pink line) has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.


Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

The Extended Outlook offers a general sense of upcoming conditions, but is not a specific forecast. Conditions depicted may change as the they get closer in time.

Click image for larger and clearer version.All 2017 Photos of The Month have been updated.
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