Thursday January 11

Kingston Snow Updates
2017-2018 Snow Forecast
2017-2018 Winter Season
Photo of the Month
Kingston Snow History
About Kingston Snows
Remember your umbrella!

School Forecast for:
Friday January 12th
Last Updated: 11AM Thursday January 11, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
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The Forecast

Rain is on the way!
Rain is likely to begin early tomorrow morning, and continue throughout most of the day. A lull in the rain is possible tomorrow evening before showers pick back up Friday night. Around an inch and a half of rain is likely… this combined with the warmer temperatures and snowmelt could lead to some localized flooding. If you live near streams, just be on the lookout for any rising water. As the rain tapers off Saturday morning colder air may result in a few hours of ice or mixed precipitation. While no real measurable ice accumulation is anticipated, there could be enough to make the morning slick.


Click forecast image for larger and clearer version.

Why the thaw?

The coming warm up is known as the "January Thaw" to Kingstonsnows, and is a feature that appears in some winters. What happens is the jet stream that controls weather patterns always tends to behave like a wave — sometimes it surges northward into Canada, other times it dips southward into the United States. When it surges north (the wave crest) warm air is able to flow northward, when it dips south (the wave trough) cold air spills southward. These crests and troughs constantly rotate around the globe, generally changing positions every two weeks or so. The January Thaw occurs when January begins with a cold trough that then transitions to a warm crest causing temperatures to be significantly different from the beginning to the end of the month. While this can occur during any month of the year, the January Thaw tends to be more pronounced because we're far enough into the season where the cold air is very cold, but we are still able to tap warm temperatures from down south. January 2017 and 2014 both had very pronounced thaws. While not always the case, the January thaw can be a prelude to repeat cold snaps in February as the jet stream switches back to the cold phase; in the mean time, the next two weeks will favor above normal temperatures and a pattern that is more wet than white. Check out Kingstonsnow's December Post for more jet stream behavior: Clickable Link.

Click forecast image for larger and clearer version.

I will be traveling to the annual American Meteorological Society Conference in Austin, Texas this evening, so this will be the only update today. For anyone interested in weather and climate, I encourage you to explore the AMS website: Clickable Link.

Winter update
Updated: January 1, 2018

Here in the Hudson Valley, our snow season typically runs from late November to mid March, and so early January roughly marks the end of the first third of the season. So far this year, we've seen a pretty average winter. Just over 10 inches of snow fell last month and the season total stands at 10.6 inches. This is 8 inches less than we had by the start of 2017, but is almost exactly the 13-year average. Last month, Kingstonsnows forecasted that we would see about 48 inches of snow this winter which is slightly above average. This forecast remains valid.

Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.TAll8Sn.png
Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

What about this cold?!

The average temperature in Poughkeepsie last month was 27.8 degrees. This is 3.3 degrees below normal, and is colder than 75% of Decembers on record. It was the coldest December since 2006. The real story has been the frigid temperatures of the past week. Since Christmas Day the average temperature has only been 13.5 degrees. This is by far the coldest it has been between Christmas and New Years since records began in 1949, but in context of the entire winter, it does not even rank in the top 100 coldest 7-day stretches on record. The cold will continue for about another week with the extended forecast suggesting a moderation toward normal or above normal temperatures by the end of next week, and continuing into the second half of January.

The reason for the cold is that the bubble of arctic air that is traditionally located over the north pole has migrated southward. It is not uncommon for this to happen. Sometimes this bubble of cold air shifts over Asia, other times it shifts over North America. While these cold air shifts may make local weather unbearable, the bigger picture is that the global as a whole continues to run a fever with most areas warmer than normal. Global temperatures have been steadily increasing since the early 1900s, and 2017 will rank as either the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in modern human history when all the data is compiled. The warmest year on record was 2016.

Image caption: The blue colors over North America (top left) represent today's below average temperatures, the reds across the rest of the globe represent above normal temperatures. Click image for larger and clearer version.

Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions.
Updated: January 1, 2018

School Impact Probability

Day (Date) Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (8) Low Medium Very Low
Tuesday (9) Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Wednesday (10) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (11) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Friday (12) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low

Temperature and Precipitation

Click image for larger and clearer version.

The normal high temperature for January 8th through January 21st is 34 degrees. The normal low temperature is 15 degrees.

All 2017 Photos of The Month have been updated.
Check them out via the link on the side and feel free to share any of your photos on Facebook!

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