Tuesday January 2

Snow threat for Thursday

School Forecast for:
Thursday January 4th
Last Updated: 10PM Tuesday January 2, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0% 20%
40%

The Forecast

10PM Tuesday

Overall, the forecast remains about the same as this morning. A nor'easter will move up the Atlantic Coast Wednesday into Thursday. This will produce a plowable snow along the immediate coastline. Here in the MidHudson Valley, we will be on the outer edge of the storm. At this time it remains likely that we will see at least some snow on Thursday, but these kinds of forecasts are sensitive to relatively small shifts in the storm track, and we could still see anything from just a light coating of snow to a few inches. The Kingstonsnows forecast continues to anticipate about an inch of snow, with the potential for up to about three inches. Assuming that it does snow in Kingston, any school impacts will depend on the start time. The next update is planned for tomorrow at 10AM.

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Click forecast image for larger and clearer version.

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7AM Tuesday

Since yesterday's update, there has been an increasing probability that the Hudson Valley will see accumulating snow on Thursday. This potential snow will be related to a developing nor'easter that seems poised to bring a swath of snow from northern Florida all the way to Maine. At this time, Ulster County looks to be on the edge of the storm, and any snow accumulations should be limited to a few inches… similar to the other light events that we have seen this winter. This being said, the likely timing of Thursday between 9AM and 4PM would likely lead to school impacts. Forecast updates are currently planned for 10pm tonight and 10am tomorrow.

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Click forecast image for larger and clearer version.

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10AM Monday

Goood Mooorning!
The new year has come in smashing records… early this morning Poughkeepsie recorded a minimum temperature of negative 10 degrees setting a new record low temperature for January first. The previous record for Poughkeepsie was -9 set in 1968; records for the city go back to 1949. The last time it got this cold was February 2015 when the temperature fell to -14.

And now the forecast…
Dry this week with continued cold.
The temperatures will moderate a little bit this week, and we could approach 30 degrees on Wednesday. A large coastal storm will move offshore the coast on Thursday producing cloudy skies. This will likely bring accumulating snow to New England, but largely spare New York. We could see flurries or snow showers on Thursday, but notable accumulations are not expected at this time. Thursday's storm will pull a new round of cold air into the region for the weekend, and our temperatures will fall back to the teens by Friday. Our next potential storm isn't until early next week - we'll discuss this more as this week progresses.

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Image caption: Temperatures will run below average this week, turning noticeably colder by Friday. Click image for larger and clearer version.

As far as school impacts…
Ulster County schools can cancel related to cold. Districts like New Paltz have public statements that say their 2-hour delay threshold for cold is when the temperature reaches negative 15 degrees, or the windchill reaches negative 25 degrees. In recent years, districts like Ellenville, Rondout, and Onteora have issued delays for the cold while there is no record of Kingston doing so over the past 13 years. Long story short, some districts could see delays on Friday or early next week, but it is very unlikely in Kingston with the current forecast temperatures.

Winter update
Updated: January 1, 2018

Here in the Hudson Valley, our snow season typically runs from late November to mid March, and so early January roughly marks the end of the first third of the season. So far this year, we've seen a pretty average winter. Just over 10 inches of snow fell last month and the season total stands at 10.6 inches. This is 8 inches less than we had by the start of 2017, but is almost exactly the 13-year average. Last month, Kingstonsnows forecasted that we would see about 48 inches of snow this winter which is slightly above average. This forecast remains valid.

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Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.TAll8Sn.png
Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

What about this cold?!

The average temperature in Poughkeepsie last month was 27.8 degrees. This is 3.3 degrees below normal, and is colder than 75% of Decembers on record. It was the coldest December since 2006. The real story has been the frigid temperatures of the past week. Since Christmas Day the average temperature has only been 13.5 degrees. This is by far the coldest it has been between Christmas and New Years since records began in 1949, but in context of the entire winter, it does not even rank in the top 100 coldest 7-day stretches on record. The cold will continue for about another week with the extended forecast suggesting a moderation toward normal or above normal temperatures by the end of next week, and continuing into the second half of January.

The reason for the cold is that the bubble of arctic air that is traditionally located over the north pole has migrated southward. It is not uncommon for this to happen. Sometimes this bubble of cold air shifts over Asia, other times it shifts over North America. While these cold air shifts may make local weather unbearable, the bigger picture is that the global as a whole continues to run a fever with most areas warmer than normal. Global temperatures have been steadily increasing since the early 1900s, and 2017 will rank as either the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in modern human history when all the data is compiled. The warmest year on record was 2016.

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Image caption: The blue colors over North America (top left) represent today's below average temperatures, the reds across the rest of the globe represent above normal temperatures. Click image for larger and clearer version.

Extended-Outlooks
Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions.
Updated: January 1, 2018

School Impact Probability

Day (Date) Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (8) Low Medium Very Low
Tuesday (9) Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Wednesday (10) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (11) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Friday (12) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low

Temperature and Precipitation
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Click image for larger and clearer version.

The normal high temperature for January 8th through January 21st is 34 degrees. The normal low temperature is 15 degrees.

All 2017 Photos of The Month have been updated.
Check them out via the link on the side and feel free to share any of your photos on Facebook!
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