Winter Outlook

Winter Outlook
Monday October 2, 2017

Welcome to October!

This month marks the unofficial start to the cold season here at KingstonSnows. Why? Well, because it starts getting colder, of course! So far this century, every winter season has recorded its first below freezing temperature in October. Here in Kingston, measurable snow has been recorded during two of the past 13 Octobers.

What's in store for this winter?

In their latest seasonal outlook, The National Weather Service indicates that current conditions favor a warmer than average winter across most of New York. When it comes to precipitation, they do not differentiate between snow and rain, rather they focus on the overall amount of moisture. The outlook for this features equal chances of above, below, or near-normal precipitation.

What about the Old Farmer's Almanac?

The Old Farmer's Almanac offers no scientific reasoning for their "predictions", but it is often highly cited by the public. This winter the Old Farmer's Almanac calls for "mild and snowy" weather across much of eastern New York. "Mild and wet weather" are favored across western New York and toward Long Island. This being said, KingstonSnows took a look at the forecast accuracy for the publication. Both temperature and precipitation were evaluated for New York State utilizing Binghamton, Albany, Buffalo, and Manhattan as verification points. It was found that precipitation for New York State was accurate 54% of the time while temperature was accurate 50% of the time. Altogether, this suggests that the Old Farmer's Almanac is about as reliable as a coin toss.

First Freeze?

The image below features the first date that temperatures fell to the freezing mark in recent years. The dates are for the Dutchess County Airport, and the average date is October 15th. When will winter 2017-2018 see it's first sub-freezing temperature? We shall see! Feel free to share your guess over on the KingstonSnows Facebook page. My *guess* is October 17th ;)

Click image for larger and clearer version.


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